1) Los Angeles Dodgers ↑ 1
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young last year and is a contender for the award again. He is signed with the Dodgers through 2013. Matt Kemp was the runner-up for the NL MVP Award, and was a single dinger away from joining the 40HR/40 stolen base club. The Dodgers have him locked up through 2019.
Downside: They still have yet to rid themselves of Frank McCourt.
What Actually Happened:
This team has Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, and neither of those two are the reason headline reason right now this team is the currently best in the National League. Matt Kemp is hurt, Kershaw is doing what Kershaw does, but check out these pitching facts:
- After 44 team games, the Dodgers had two starters with at least 50 strikeouts
- After 44 team games, the Dodgers had two starters with at least 5 wins (and one of those is Ted Lilly)
- After 44 team games, the Dodgers had three starters with Batting Averages Against under .210 (and one of those is Ted Lilly)
- After 44 team games, the only member of the Dodgers’ rotation without at least 40 strikeouts is Ted Lilly
Ted Lilly…really?
2) Tampa Bay Rays ↑ 5
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Their pitching staff will carry them in 2012. David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Matt Moore form a six-man rotation that just might let the Rays continue their average 92 wins over the last four seasons. Only three teams in the majors had a higher average with one of the lowest four-year payroll totals in baseball at $222 million.
Downside: The Rays need a new fanbase and stadium.
What Actually Happened:
The Rays have 4 grand slams this season, which leads the major leagues. They also have the best home record in all of baseball.
3) Washington Nationals ↓ 2
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The Nationals have one of the best young rotations in baseball. Strasburg appears ready to return to his pre- Tommy John surgery condition, and the acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson were huge. If Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Chien-Ming Wang can stay away from the injury problems that have bugged them, the Nationals should be able to stay in most games based on their pitching alone. But the Nats should be stronger in the middle of the order since Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse, and Danny Espinosa all could be 25 HR, 90 RBI guys.
Downside: The Nats have three question marks. The first is at first base; Adam LaRoche played only 43 games last year before season-ending surgery and hit just .172. Can he return to the form of his previous years? However, Michael Morse blossomed at first base once LaRoche went down. Secondly, the Nats have an issue in the lead-off spot. Ian Desmond is going to start the season there, but he’ll have to learn to be more patient. He’s drawn only 63 walks in 308 games during 2010 and 2011. Lastly there’s the matter of timing. This needs to be the year the Nats take a step toward the future because this is the last year before the expectations are going to go up. They can still be mediocre this year, but if they finish third or worse in 2013, they may just become a red version of the Cubs.
What Actually Happened:
The pitching has been tremendous, with the exception of the recent flame-out of Ross Detweiler, and this team is getting healthy. Chien-Ming Wang is slated to take Detweiler’s rotation spot, Ryan Zimmerman is back and starting to take on his $100 million form, and Michael Morse is on a rehab assignment at Class-A Potomac.
4) Texas Rangers ↓ 1
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The only team in the A.L. West they have to worry about is the Angels. The Rangers have a line-up tailor-made to their hitter-friendly park, so there is no reason they can’t lead the league in team batting average again. Not to mention, they placed top five in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Downside: The Rangers are gambling in the wake of losing C.J. Wilson to division-rival Los Angeles with their $103 million investment in Yu Darvish and moving Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation for the first time in his major league career. Then there’s the Josh Hamilton situation…we all know about the off-the-field issues, but don’t forget the former AL MVP has been hampered by injuries lately as well. Now contract talks are stalled, and who knows what impact that will have.
What Actually Happened:
Prototypical Texas Ranger baseball…massive lumber and quasi-shaky pitching. Josh Hamilton continues to torch American League pitchers, and Nelson Cruz is also on a hot streak. But the pitching is showing some cracks with the injuries to Neftali Feliz, the aging Roy Oswalt is supposedly the savior coming from the minors, and it’s never a good sign for the bullpen when a reliever is second on the team with five wins.
5) Baltimore Orioles ↑ 11
What We Originally Said:
Upside: As bad as there were in 2011, their offense wasn’t all that bad and they’ve kept the core of it. If Mark Reynolds can produce another 30-plus home run season, and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continue their consistent hitting, the Orioles could end up being a mediocre team.
Downside: The Orioles had the worst off-season of any Major League team. If you don’t agree, here are their off-season acquisitions: pitchers Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jason Hammel, and Matt Lindstrom; and position players Wilson Betemit, Endy Chavez and Taylor Teagarden.
What Actually Happened:
I still don’t buy this team long-term; I just don’t think they have the pitching to stay in a race. However, right now they have the best road record in baseball, and they have five hitters with at least 20 RBI in 40 games played.
6) Chicago White Sox ↑ 7
What We Originally Said:
Upside: General Manager Ken Williams also showed a desire to rebuild his club by getting rid of longtime White Sox starter Mark Buehrle and letting go of Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Jason Frasor, Sergio Santos, and Omar Vizquel.
Downside: General Manager Ken Williams has no idea how to rebuild a club. He replaced staff ace Mark Buerhle by over-paying for the ever-fraudulent John Danks. The rest of the starting rotation will depend on the fragile Jake Peavy and the unproven Chris Sale.
What Actually Happened:
Earlier, I said this team was a “smoke and mirror” job. Then, the Mighty Whiteys were riding a perfect game tossed by a nobody and an 340 performance by Alex Rios, both of which I knew wouldn’t last. What I didn’t see coming was the resurgence of Adam Dunn and an MVP-esque performance from Paul Konerko. which won’t last.
7) New York Yankees ↓ 2
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The Yankees upgraded their pitching staff by adding Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda, and by subtracting A.J. Burnett. Prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos will soon find their way to the major league rotation as well. If the pitching staff gels and Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, and Mark Teixeira perform as expected, this team will prove formidable.
Downside: Don’t look now, but this team isn’t getting any younger.
What Actually Happened:
This team gives me more reason to rate them lower than higher, yet somehow they are winning with mediocre pitching and a lot of bats who are not performing up to the usual standards.
8 ) New York Mets ↑ 12
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Whether its up or down, the theme once again for the Mets is hope. Hopefully, all the distractions that surrounded last season are gone with the departure of Jose Reyes. Hopefully, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana are healthy, will stay that way, and will perform up to expectations. Hopefully, there will be a resurgence of third baseman David Wright and Jason Bay now that the outfield wall has been moved in.
Downside: Hopefully, all those things I just mentioned will happen. Right after they all do happen, we can all join hands and visit the fairy princess together. Not only that, but this team goes nowhere as long as Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz own the team. Let’s face it, meltdown, dumpster fire, train wreck…they all are synonymous with “Mets.”
What Actually Happened:
It must be a New York thing. Just like the Yankees, I have more reasons to downgrade this team. Like the Yankees, the Mets pitching is weak. Just like the Yankees, this team keeps winning and I don’t really understand why.
9) Los Angeles Angels ↔
What We Originally Said:
Upside: This team has ownership that isn’t afraid to make a move. Due to the free-agent signing of first baseman Albert Pujols and starting pitcher C.J. Wilson, the Angels committed $331.5 million, which left little room for the team to add anyone else significant during the offseason. New GM Jerry DiPoto did, however, get his hands on a decent bat bat behind the plate in Chris Iannetta, and reliable veteran relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins becomes the latest on the list of guys who have played for both of my two favorite teams (Angels and Twins).
Pujols adds to a lineup which featured six players with double-digit home runs, and six with over 59 RBI. Top prospects in catcher Hank Conger and outfielder Mike Trout will also be in the running for a full season with the club.
C.J. Wilson adds to a rotation which already featured 2011 A.L. All-Star Game starter Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.
Downside: Which Vernon Wells do the Angels get in 2012?
What Actually Happened:
Since the last time I did this ranking, the Angels plummeted and have re-risen. Albert Pujols is clearly back to his expected form, and he looks to be leading a general resurgence of the Angels offense. But it is the pitching that has carried this team so far; two starters have a batting average against under .200, and three have at least 54 strikeouts.
10) Miami Marlins ↑ 13
What We Originally Said:
Upside: I don’t think there could be a more interesting team to watch in 2012. Miami is one of three teams in the Dubsism Top Ten from the N.L. East Division and got there through having by far the most active off-season. Tey’ve got a new name, new uniforms, new logos, a new stadium, a new manager, and of course, new players. The new Marlins Park will play host to the new-look squad under new manager and old loud mouth Ozzie Guillen, who will be leading new shortstop and reigning N.L. batting champ Jose Reyes, new closer Heath Bell, and new starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano. Added to existing Marlins Hanley Ramirezx and ace Josh Johnson, there’s no way this team won’t be entertaining at least.
Downside: This also just could be the loading of a gigantic powder-keg. Zambrano and Guillen in the same dug-out? The Marlins may want to keep the bomb squad handy at all times, not just for the volatility I just mentioned, but for the fact if this team doesn’t win right away, look for it to get blown up quick.
What Actually Happened:
The Marlins could be a Florida version of the Angels in the sense they came into the season with big expectations, then struggled early, and are now starting to look like the team we thought they might be.
11) Cleveland Indians ↑ 7
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Shin-Soo Choo seems to be healthy. Vinne Pestano and Nick Hagadone could be the foundations of a solid, young bullpen. Carlos Santana is a potential All-Star.
Downside: Fausto Carmona (or whoever he really is) may never get back into the country and Grady Sizemore is probably finished as an effective major league player. The heyday for this team was fifteen years ago, and unless you can find a way to add Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, and Jake Taylor to the roster, there will be more than one long summer in Cleveland’s near future.
What Actually Happened:
Please refer to my comments on this team from the previous rankings.
Don’t even tell me about this team being in first place. I bit on the Indians last year, and I’m not about to do it again. This team in many ways could be a mirror image of the Orioles, and they will be a memory by July…
Here’s why they are where they are. They have suprisingly not-shitty pitching, but they can’t hit.
12) Cincinnati Reds ↑ 2
What We Originally Said:
Upside: General Manager Walt Jocketty managed to improve the starting rotation by adding former Padres ace Mat Latos, the bullpen by bringing in Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall, and added some needed depth by acquiring Wilson Valdez, Willie Harris, and Ryan Ludwick. With these additions to the existing weapons like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the fact the N.L. Central no longer has the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the Reds have the potential once again to seize the top spot in the division.
Downside: That pitching staff is managed by Dusty “The Ligament Shredder” Baker, the same Dusty Bake who think base-runners “just clog up the basepaths.”
What Actually Happened:
The Cincinnati Reds formula: Johnny Cueto + passable decent starting pitching + a solid bullpen + Jay Bruce and JoeyVotto – reasonable divisional competition = barely above .500. Luckily, this happens to be good enough for first place in the NL Central.
13) Atlanta Braves ↓ 9
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Last year, I said the Braves were a collection of “what-ifs” built around a solid core of just enough hitting and just enough pitching. Now, enough of those questions became facts so that barring injuries, the Braves can contend in the NL East.
Downside: The Braves finished 13 games back of the Phillies last season, and they way the season ended for them still has to sting. The question is did they improve enough to fix those issues?
What Actually Happened:
This team looked so solid a month ago, then the problems hit. Chipper Jones is going to the DL, which will cripple this offense because they can’t hit without him. Brian McCann seems to have the western hemispheres first case of the bubonic plague in decades, David Ross strained his groin on a checked swing, Freddie Freeman needs to find a an optometrist better than the one at Wal-Mart, and they’ve yet to realize Tyler Pastornicky sucks.
14) San Francisco Giants ↑ 1
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner form one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in the game.
Downside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the worst offenses in baseball. With the losses of Cody Ross and Carlos Beltran, this team may find itself relying on a 3-4-5 heart of the order consisting of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt.
What Actually Happened:
In a Bizarro World twist, the Giants who are known for thier pitching are oddly enough staying afloat on hitting. As for the pitching, the usual recipe for success ({insert starter here} for six innings, then some combination of Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, and/or Sergio Romo, then Brian Wilson in the 9th) hasn’t been in place all season. But that not the weird part. That is reserved for this little fact…Since 1960, the Giants have only had two seasons in which a player collected 200 hits (Bobby Bonds in 1970 and Rich Aurilia in 2001). With 64 hits in 44 games played, Melky Cabrera is (wait ofr it…one of my favorite phrases ever…) is on a pace for 225 hits (assuming he plays 155 games).
15) Philadelphia Phillies ↓ 3
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The starting rotation is as good as it gets with Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Vance Worley. New closer Jonathan Papelbon should help shore up the bullpen.
Downside: If the Yankees and the Phillies make the World Series, they may want to get the games done before 4 p.m., so they can all hit the early-bird specials at Denny’s. This is another team that is aging before our eyes. Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins are 33, Chase Utley is 32, and Placido Polanco tops the list at 36. Not to mention, the Phillies have lost have lost four of their last five postseason series.
What Actually Happened:
At one point, I said this team was a wild-card because you really couldn’t tell which way they were going. Now you can, and it isn’t the good way. Forget the injuries, forget the pitching, and forget everything else. This is a team that can’t even get a Roy Halladay bobblehead correct.
16) Toronto Blue Jays ↓ 6
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Jose Bautista. In 2010, he hit .260 with 35 doubles, 54 home runs and 124 RBI. In 2011, he hit .302 with 24 doubles, 43 home runs, and 103 RBI. He has to figure in the MVP race.
Downside: The Blue Jays could have a bright future, but the future isn’t today. Ricky Romero has also been nothing short of excellent for the club. Last season, the 27-year-old went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts. It’s time to see if youngsters Brett Lawrie, Anthony Gose, and catcher Travis D’Arnaud can live up to expectations.
What Actually Happened:
This isn’t so much a descent as it is a return to earth. This team has a future, but that future isn’t necessarily today.
17) Detroit Tigers ↓ 11
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Last season, the Motor City Kitties finished in the top four in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage. The numbers can only get better with the offseason acquisition of first baseman Prince Fielder, who just happens to be a career .282 hitter averaging over 32 home runs and 93 RBI per season over the last six years.
Downside: How does the move of Cabrera back to third base work out? What will be the impact of losing DH Victor Martinez? And I’m not sold on the rotation beyond Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.
What Actually Happened:
This team has Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder, yet still sucks. You explain it to me so we’ll both know.
18 ) St. Louis Cardinals ↓ 10
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Despite losing Albert Pujols and manager Tony La Russa, the Cardinals still have enough weapons to be a factor in the N.L. Central. Starter Adam Wainwright comes back from Tommy John surgery, and he leads a rotation featuring Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, and Kyle Lohse. Also, could this be the breakout year for World Series MVP David Freese? His 21 RBI over 18 postseason games last October could signal the start of something big.
Downside: Let’s face it…losing Albert Pujols would hurt any line-up. This means Lance Berkman has to at least come close to the .301/31 HR/94 RBI campaign he put up in 2011, and Matt Holliday has to be a .300/25 HR/RBI guy as well.
What Actually Happened:
Remember when I said for the Cardinals to have any hope, Lance Berkman needed to get healthy and Matt Holliday had to bat better than .215? Well, one of those things happened, but the loss of Berkman likely dooms this team.
19) Boston Red Sox ↔
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The Boston Red Sox are taking on an entirely new look in 2012. For the first time in recent memory, Jonathan Papelbon, J.D. Drew, Tim Wakefield, and Jason Varitek will not be on the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox. And it’s about time, especially after what happened last September. Despite this new look, New GM Ben Cherington will be faced with the challenge of keeping the Sox a contender.
Downside: I don’t give a damn what anybody says, I don’t buy this pitching staff. Jon Lester has always been over-rated in my book. The loss of John Lackey is a case of “addition by subtraction.” Clay Buchholz walks too many guys. Who knows what Daniel Bard and Vincente Padilla really are?
Then, there’s the whole issue of that idiot Bobby Valentine. I can’t wait for the Terry Francona “Miss Me Yet?” billboards to break out all over New England.
What Actually Happened:
Yet another case where there is precious little change from what I originally thought. Bobby Valentine took a soap opera and made it into one those really cheesy drama you see on Telemundo. Plus, this may be the worst .500 team I’ve ever seen.
20) Houston Astros ↑ 8
What We Originally Said:
Upside: They have some nice young talent on the team like Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, and Fernando Martinez, and they still have Carlos Lee as the lone power source on the roster.
Downside: Last year, the pitching staff was bottom five in league rankings with a 4.51 cumulative ERA, 1.42 WHIP and a .266 opponents batting average en route to a league worst 56-106 record. That staff didn’t get any better.
What Actually Happened:
The Astros are the .500 photo negative of the Red Sox…they prove you don’t need big contracts, drama queens, and a dipshit manager to be mediocre at best. At least for Houston, this is a dramatic improvement.
21) Pittsburgh Pirates ↑ 4
What We Said Originally:
Upside: The Bucs are quietly cobbling together a respectable offense. Outfielders Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and All-Star Andrew McCutchen are likely to be the the 1-2-3 hitters; all of them hit over .275 last year, and all of them swiped over 20 sacks. Neil Walker looks like a #4 hitter after hitting 17 home runs and 62 RBI in only 460 at-bats. Plus, the Pirates may have emerging power at the corner infield spots; Garrett Jones showed some pop with 17 homers last year, and Pedro Alvarez is due for his breakout year any time now.
Downside: Last year, the Pirates gave up the third-worst opponents batting average (.270) and received the fifth-fewest quality starts from their starting five. A.J. Burnett is supposed to be the cure for that?
What Actually Happened:
See the Houston Astros, except the Pirates actually have a few honest-to-goodness major leaguers. This, of course, does not include A. J. Burnett.
22) Arizona Diamondbacks ↓ 5
What We Originally Said:
Upside: In a division heavy in pitching, the D-backs chose bulk by getting potential question mark Trevor Cahill from Oakland and re-signing their own free agent, Joe Saunders, after non-tendering him at the December deadline for arbitration-eligibles. Kennedy, Hudson and Saunders logged career highs in innings last season, and it will be interesting to see if they can repeat that…see below…
Downside: Even though the Arizona Diamondbacks finished first place in the NL West Division at 94-68, their starting rotation was filled with career-best seasons:
- Ian Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 earned run average and 198 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
- Daniel Hudson went 16-12 with a 3.49 earned run average and 169 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
- Joe Saunders went 12-13 with 3.69 earned run average and 108 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched.
- Josh Collmenter went 10-10 with a 3.38 earned run average and 100 strikeouts in 154.1 innings pitched.
The D-backs line-up can be inconsistent as well – they struggled to hit over .250 as team despite everyday players Gerardo Parra, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero hitting .292, .289 and .282 respectively.
What Actually Happened:
The offense went south; Justin Upton might well be on a milk carton and this team sorely misses Stephen Drew. Plus, the pitching clearly is not going to repeat last year’s performance.
23) Oakland Athletics ↓ 2
What We Originally Said:
Upside: America’s favorite breakfast cereal, Coco Crisp, will still man the Oakland outfield after signing a $14 million, two-year contract with a club option for 2014 after hitting .264 with eight home runs, 54 RBI and 49 stolen bases last season. Then there the Cuban grab-bag known as Yoenis Cespedes. This kid could be the real deal.
Downside: The A’s are without many of their pitchers who brought success to the team in recent years. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Josh Outman are out of the starting rotation, while Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey are no longer in the bullpen. The one proven offensive power bat in the lineup has also departed; Josh Willingham hit 29 home runs and 98 RBI in 2011, but is now part of the Minnesota Twins.
What Actually Happened:
How the A’s have won 9 games all while being last in the league in average, slugging percentage, and hitting with runners in scoring position is a minor miracle.
24) Seattle Mariners ↔
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Felix Hernandez.
Downside: This is the last year of Ichiro Suzuki’s contract with the club. The 38-year-old has seen his batting average drop 80 points over the last two seasons, so you can only expect that this will be his final season with the club unless he’s back to being the old Ichiro. In addition to Ichiro’s decline, the Mariners finished dead last in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage last year.
What Actually Happened:
To quote Dennis Green…They are who we thought they were. Jason Vargas and King Felix to give the Mariners a solid 1-2 combination, but to say this team has little else is like saying Oprah Winfrey has a “little bit” of a weight problem.
25) Milwaukee Brewers ↓ 14
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Even though Miller Park is known for being tough on right-handed sluggers, the Brewers brought in third baseman Aramis Ramirez. He will need to have a Beltre-like season (.300/25 HR/90 RBIs) to help off-set the loss of Prince Fielder.
Downside: The big questions: Can Mat Gamel prove he is ready to be a major league first-baseman, including posting some power numbers at the plate? Can Wily Peralta develop into a credible big-league starter? Then there’s the elephant in the room…the Ryan Braun situation and what impact it may have…
What Actually Happened:
So much for Wily Peralta…he got shipped back to the minors. So much for Mat Gamel…he tore an ACL and is done for the season. Maybe Ryan Braun can get this sample of a season tossed.
26) Colorado Rockies ↓ 2
What We Originally Said:
Upside: Troy Tulowitzki hit .302 with 36 doubles, 30 home runs, and 105 RBI in 2011. Carlos Gonzalez hit .295 with 27 doubles, 26 home runs, and 92 RBI in only 127 games. Casey Blake, Marco Scutaro, Ramon Hernandez, and Michael Cuddyer will all be joining the Colorado this season, which can only provide more cushion in a lineup that already features some of baseball’s best hitters. The crisp air in Colorado with these players and Todd Helton at the forefront can only mean runs, runs, and more runs.
Downside: The starting rotation will consist of Jeremy Guthrie, Jhoulys Chacin, and then any three out of about six possibles, including the 49-year old Jamie Moyer.
What Actually Happened:
There’s only three reasons to pay any attention to this team: Carlos Gonzlaez, Troy Tulowitzki, and the on-going Jamie Moyer saga.
27) Kansas City Royals ↑ 3
What We Originally Said:
Upside: The club is loaded with young talent like Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar. Alex Gordon turned a corner in 2011. Billy Butler, Jeff Francoeur, and Jason Kendall provide veteran leadership, and there are more top prospects on the way like Wil Myers and Bubba Starling. The Royals also added pitching with starter Jonathan Sanchez and closer Jonathan Broxton.
Downside: General Manager Dayton Moore is a bit of an unproven commodity, so there’s no guarantee that he isn’t going to mortgage the future if the fans expectations suddenly outstrip the team’s talent.
What Actually Happened:
Image from Royales With Cheese
This is clearly not a case of this team improving; this team couldn’t suck more if you gave them a fully-automated, electrically-powered, full-on sucking machine. Rather, it is a case of the three teams below the Royals got worse.
28) San Diego Padres ↓ 1
What We Said Originally:
Upside: Again, you really can’t beat the weather in San Diego…and the Padres, despite the loss of Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, and Heath Bell still have a serviceable (not great, serviceable) pitching staff currently slated to feature Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, and Cory Luebke. Heath Bell’s closer role has been replaced by Huston Street.
Downside: The Padres offense last year was in the bottom three in runs scored (593), batting average (.237), on-base percentage (.305) and slugging percentage (.349). The only improvements to that came in the form of Carlos Quentin, Yonder Alonso, and current AARP member Mark Kotsay.
What Actually Happened:
It’s not really that hard to meet expectations when nobody expects anything from you.
29) Minnesota Twins ↔
What We Originally Said:
Upside: It is possible they get production from the faces of the franchise, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Last year thanks to injuries, Mauer hit .287 with three home runs and 30 RBI, while Morneau hit a horrid .227 with four home runs and 30 RBI.
Downside: Only three players on the Twins saw more than 100 games of action last year. There’s Michael Cuddyer, who is now getting his mail in Colorado, outfielder Ben Revere, and third baseman Danny Valencia. These might be the only Twins who matter in 2012.
What Actually Happened:
When does Ron Gardenhire become Ron Garden-fired? Forget it, it won’t matter because firing Gardy to improve the Twins is like curing a bad case of syphilis by chopping off your junk.
30) Chicago Cubs ↓ 4
What We Said Originally:
Upside: Its spring, when Cubs fans everywhere have hope that at long last, this will finally be the year the winning drought in Wrigley Field ends. Plus, they off-loaded head-case first class Carlos Zambrano on the Marlins. Starlin Castro might be the bona fide star in Wrigley.
Downside: It’s not going to happen. Getting rid of Zambrano now means a pitching staff comprised of Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood; along with threat of Jeff Samardzija getting work as a starter in spring training. The Cubs have an average-at-best rotation and no replacement for Aramis Ramirez on offense. Snicker if you must, but A-Ram stacks up favorably against some historic third-basemen. He’s complied the second-most 25-home run seasons (9) for a third baseman, behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews who each had 12. Not to mention, only Chipper Jones has more seasons with at least a .300 batting average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI at the hot corner. Once again, spring becomes summer; the Cubs’drought continues.
What Actually Happened:
The Cubs are usually finished once the ivy blooms. Thanks to an unusually warm spring in Chicago, that happened early this year. While this may not be the worst team the Cubs have put on the field in my lifetime, they are certainly trying to get there.
