What We’ve Learned: The Dubsism Baseball Power Rankings After 10% Of The Season

26 04 2012

1) Washington Nationals ↑ 13

What We Originally Said:

Upside: The Nationals have one of the best young rotations in baseball.  Strasburg appears ready to return to his pre- Tommy John surgery condition, and the acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson were huge.  If Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Chien-Ming Wang can stay away from the injury problems that have bugged them, the Nationals should be able to stay in most games based on their pitching alone.  But the Nats should be stronger in the middle of the order since Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse, and Danny Espinosa all could be 25 HR, 90 RBI guys.

Downside: The Nats have three question marks. The first is at first base; Adam LaRoche played only 43 games last year before season-ending surgery and hit just .172. Can he return to the form of his previous years? However, Michael Morse blossomed at first base once LaRoche went down.  Secondly, the Nats have an issue in the lead-off spot. Ian  Desmond is going to start the season there, but he’ll have to learn to be more patient.  He’s drawn only 63 walks in 308 games during 2010 and 2011. Lastly there’s the matter of timing. This needs to be the year the Nats take a step toward the future because this is the last year before the expectations are going to go up. They can still be mediocre this year, but if they finish third or worse in 2013, they may just become a red version of the Cubs.

What Actually Happened:

The pitching has been exceptional; the starters have an ERA of 1.72. Nobody in the lineup is tearing the cover off the ball, but this team only needs to score three runs to win. Even though it’s early, it is time to get worried about the injury factor – Elvin Ramirez, Chien-Ming Wang, Cole Kimball, Drew Storen, Chris Marrero, and Michael Morse are already on the DL, and we are waiting MRI results on Ryan Zimmerman.

2) Los Angeles Dodgers ↑ 16

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young last year and is a contender for the award again. He is signed with the Dodgers through 2013.  Matt Kemp was the runner-up for the NL MVP Award, and was a single dinger away from joining the 40HR/40 stolen base club.  The Dodgers have him locked up through 2019.

Downside: They still have yet to rid themselves of Frank McCourt.

What Actually Happened:

Two words: Matt Kemp…and getting rid of Frank McCourt didn’t hurt either.

3) Texas Rangers ↑ 2

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  The only team in the A.L. West they have to worry about is the Angels. The Rangers have a line-up tailor-made to their hitter-friendly park, so there is no reason they can’t lead the league in team batting average again. Not to mention, they placed top five in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Downside: The Rangers are gambling in the wake of losing C.J. Wilson to division-rival Los Angeles with their $103 million investment in Yu Darvish and moving  Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation for the first time in his major league career. Then there’s the Josh Hamilton situation…we all know about the off-the-field issues, but don’t forget the former AL MVP has been hampered by injuries lately as well.  Now contract talks are stalled, and who knows what impact that will have.

What Actually Happened:

Josh Hamilton is still playing like the MVP-caliber player he can be, Yu Darvish is showing signs of being the “real deal,” and this team is leading the league in runs scored and team ERA. That’s a tough combination to beat.

4) Atlanta Braves ↔

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Last year, I said the Braves were a collection of “what-ifs” built around a solid core of just enough hitting and just enough pitching. Now, enough of those questions became facts so that barring injuries, the Braves can contend in the NL East.

Downside: The Braves finished 13 games back of the Phillies last season, and they way the season ended for them still has to sting. The question is did they improve enough to fix those issues?

What Actually Happened:

The Upside? The Braves are first in the National League in runs scores and second in home runs. The Downside? The Braves are twelfth in the National League in team ERA.

5) New York Yankees ↓ 3

What We Originally Said:

Upside: The Yankees upgraded their pitching staff by adding Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda, and by subtracting A.J. Burnett.  Prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos will soon find their way to the major league rotation as well. If the pitching staff gels and Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, and Mark Teixeira perform as expected, this team will prove formidable.

Downside:  Don’t look now, but this team isn’t getting any younger.

What Actually Happened:

It’s not like the Yanks don’t already have enough offensive weapons, now all of a sudden Nick Swisher is leading the American League in RBIs, and Derek “Retirement Home” Jeter is hitrting .400.

6) Detroit Tigers ↔

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Last season, the Motor City Kitties finished in the top four in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage. The numbers can only get better with the offseason acquisition of first baseman Prince Fielder, who just happens to be a career .282 hitter averaging over 32 home runs and 93 RBI per season over the last six years.

Downside: How does the move of Cabrera back to third base work out? What will be the impact of losing DH Victor Martinez? And I’m not sold on the rotation beyond Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.

What Actually Happened:

The rib cage injury to Doug Fister hurts, and they will need him back and healthy before October, but this team should be just fine until then. Nobody else in the AL Central is legit, and that includes the smoke and mirror job known ans the White Sox.

7) Tampa Bay Rays ↔

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Their pitching staff will carry them in 2012.  David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Matt Moore form a six-man rotation that just might let the Rays continue their average 92 wins over the last four seasons. Only three teams in the majors had a higher average with one of the lowest four-year payroll totals in baseball at $222 million.

Downside: The Rays need a new fanbase and stadium.

What Actually Happened:

The Rays have five guys with a slugging percentage north of .550, and they have three starters with ERA under 3.50.

8 ) St. Louis Cardinals ↑ 2

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Despite losing Albert Pujols and manager Tony La Russa, the Cardinals still have enough weapons to be a factor in the N.L. Central. Starter Adam Wainwright comes back from Tommy John surgery, and he leads a rotation featuring Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, and Kyle Lohse. Also, could this be the breakout year for World Series MVP David Freese? His 21 RBI over 18 postseason games last October could signal the start of something big.

Downside: Let’s face it…losing Albert Pujols would hurt any line-up. This means Lance Berkman has to at least come close to the .301/31 HR/94 RBI campaign he put up in 2011, and Matt Holliday has to be a .300/25 HR/RBI guy as well.

What Actually Happened:

Seven guys batting .320 or better, five guys slugging .500 or better, and four starters with ERAs under 2.50.  But this team needs Lance Berkman to get healthy and Matt Holliday to bat better than .215.

9)  Los Angeles Angels ↓ 8 

What We  Originally Said:

Upside: This team has ownership that isn’t afraid to make a move. Due to the free-agent signing of first baseman Albert Pujols and starting pitcher C.J. Wilson, the Angels committed $331.5 million, which left little room for the team to add anyone else significant during the offseason. New GM Jerry DiPoto did, however, get his hands on a decent bat bat behind the plate in Chris Iannetta, and reliable veteran relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins becomes the latest on the list of guys who have played for both of my two favorite teams (Angels and Twins).

Pujols adds to a lineup which featured six players with double-digit home runs, and six with over 59 RBI. Top prospects in catcher Hank Conger and outfielder Mike Trout will also be in the running for a full season with the club.

C.J. Wilson adds to a rotation which already featured 2011 A.L. All-Star Game starter Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.

Downside: Which Vernon Wells do the Angels get in 2012?

What Actually Happened:

Albert Pujols has yet to happen. This team has far too much talent both on the hill and at the plate to not be in the top ten despite their slow start. Raise your hand if you think this team won’t be a factor come October…

10) Toronto Blue Jays ↑ 5

What We  Originally Said:

Upside: Jose Bautista.  In 2010, he hit .260 with 35 doubles, 54 home runs and 124 RBI. In 2011, he hit .302 with 24 doubles, 43 home runs, and 103 RBI. He has to figure in the MVP race.

Downside: The Blue Jays could have a bright future, but the future isn’t today.  Ricky Romero has also been nothing short of excellent for the club. Last season, the 27-year-old went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts. It’s time to see if youngsters Brett Lawrie,  Anthony Gose, and catcher Travis D’Arnaud can live up to expectations.

What Actually Happened:

We stand by the original statements. It really isn’t Jose Bautista’s fault everybody quit pitching to him; but it will be a while before opposing pitchers fear his protection enough to pitch to him again.  But that will happen given the rate at which Toronto’s young talent is developing. Thios team has a future, but that future isn’t necessarily today.

11) Milwaukee Brewers ↑ 5

What We  Originally Said:

Upside:  Even though Miller Park is known for being tough on right-handed sluggers, the Brewers brought in third baseman Aramis Ramirez. He will need to have a Beltre-like season (.300/25 HR/90 RBIs) to help off-set the loss of Prince Fielder.

Downside: The big questions: Can Mat Gamel prove he is ready to be a major league first-baseman, including posting some power numbers at the plate? Can Wily Peralta develop into a credible big-league starter? Then there’s the elephant in the room…the Ryan Braun situation and what impact it may have…

What Actually Happened:

So much for Wily Peralta…he got shipped back to the minors on Monday.  Somehow, this team is 2nd in the National League in home runs considering Corey “Wears his sunglasses at night” Hart leads this team in the triple-crown categories (.286/5 HR/12 RBI).  Yeah, I’m pretty sure I’m the first who made that joke.

12) Philadelphia Phillies ↓ 9

What We Originally Said:

Upside: The starting rotation is as good as it gets with Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Vance Worley. New closer Jonathan Papelbon should help shore up the bullpen.

Downside:  If the Yankees and the Phillies make the World Series, they may want to get the games done before 4 p.m., so they can all hit the early-bird specials at Denny’s. This is another team that is aging before our eyes. Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins are 33, Chase Utley is 32, and Placido Polanco tops the list at 36. Not to mention, the Phillies have lost have lost four of their last five postseason series.

What Actually Happened:

This team is a complete wild-card. Between, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, this team has $56 million on the disabled list.  If they get healthy soon, they can still be a contender just on the pitching staff alone. But if they don’t, they could be an afterthought by the all-star break.

13) Chicago White Sox ↑ 10

What We Originally Said:

Upside: General Manager Ken Williams also showed a desire to rebuild his club by getting rid of longtime White Sox starter Mark Buehrle and letting go of Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Jason Frasor, Sergio Santos, and Omar Vizquel.

Downside: General Manager Ken Williams has no idea how to rebuild a club. He replaced staff ace Mark Buerhle by over-paying for the ever-fraudulent John Danks.  The rest of the starting rotation will depend on the fragile Jake Peavy and the unproven Chris Sale.

What Actually Happened:

Earlier, we said this team is a “smoke and mirror” job. This team is where it is now based on a perfect game tossed by a nobody and an early .340 performance by Alex Rios, which won’t last.

14)  Cincinnati Reds ↓ 6

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  General Manager Walt Jocketty managed to improve the starting rotation by adding former Padres ace Mat Latos, the bullpen by bringing in Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall, and added some needed depth by acquiring Wilson Valdez, Willie Harris, and Ryan Ludwick. With these additions to the existing weapons like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the fact the N.L. Central no longer has the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the Reds have the potential once again to seize the top spot in the division.

Downside: That pitching staff is managed by Dusty “The Ligament Shredder” Baker, the same Dusty Bake who think base-runners “just clog up the basepaths.”

What Actually Happened:

Thanks to the “Ligament Shredder,” Ryan Madson has already been through the “Tommy John” surgery. You know this won’t be the only damage Dusty does.   This team will hit, which will keep them in contention in a weak division, but Dusty will once again turn the bullpen into a graveyard.

15)  San Francisco Giants ↓ 4

What We Originally Said:

Upside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner form one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in the game.

Downside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the worst offenses in baseball. With the losses of Cody Ross and Carlos Beltran, this team may find itself relying on a 3-4-5 heart of the order consisting of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt.

What Actually Happened:

The loss of Brian “The Beard” Wilson may be fatal. The Giants’ recipe for success has been (insert starter here) for six innings, then some combination of Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, and Sergio Romo, then Wilson in the 9th. Without Wilson, and worse yet, with Lincecum and Cain unable to reliably deliver the first six, this team can’t win.

16) Baltimore Orioles ↑ 6

What We Originally Said:

Upside: As bad as there were in 2011, their offense wasn’t all that bad and they’ve kept the core of it.  If Mark Reynolds can produce another 30-plus home run season, and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continue their consistent hitting, the Orioles could end up being a mediocre team.

Downside:  The Orioles had the worst off-season of any Major League team.  If you don’t agree, here are their off-season acquisitions: pitchers Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jason Hammel, and Matt Lindstrom; and position players Wilson Betemit, Endy Chavez and Taylor Teagarden.

What Actually Happened:

OK, so the O’s have won ten games so far, so why are they ranked so low? Because they are the O’s. The best this team can hope for is mediocre, and they haven’t looked all that good in winning.  You can count on this team to fade soon; they just don’t have the horses to stay in a race.

17) Arizona Diamondbacks ↓ 4

What We Originally Said:

Upside: In a division heavy in pitching, the D-backs chose bulk by getting potential question mark Trevor Cahill from Oakland and re-signing their own free agent, Joe Saunders, after non-tendering him at the December deadline for arbitration-eligibles. Kennedy, Hudson and Saunders logged career highs in innings last season, and it will be interesting to see if they can repeat that…see below…

Downside:  Even though the Arizona Diamondbacks finished first place in the NL West Division at 94-68, their starting rotation was filled with career-best seasons:

  • Ian Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 earned run average and 198 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
  • Daniel Hudson went 16-12 with a 3.49 earned run average and 169 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
  • Joe Saunders went 12-13 with 3.69 earned run average and 108 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched.
  • Josh Collmenter went 10-10 with a 3.38 earned run average and 100 strikeouts in 154.1 innings pitched.

The D-backs line-up can be inconsistent as well – they struggled to hit over .250 as team despite everyday players Gerardo Parra, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero hitting .292, .289 and .282 respectively.

What Actually Happened:

Just what we thought…the starting rotation has two guys with ERAs north of 6.00. Without a repeat of the pitching performances from last year, this team can’t rely on inconsistent bats.

18) Cleveland Indians ↑ 1

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  Shin-Soo Choo seems to be healthy. Vinne Pestano and Nick Hagadone could be the foundations of a solid, young bullpen.  Carlos Santana is a potential All-Star.

Downside: Fausto Carmona (or whoever he really is) may never get back into the country and Grady Sizemore is probably finished as an effective major league player. The heyday for this team was fifteen years ago, and unless you can find a way to add Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, and Jake Taylor to the roster, there will be more than one long summer in Cleveland’s near future.

What Actually Happened:

Don’t even tell me about this team being in first place.  I bit on the Indians last year, and I’m not about to do it again.  This team in many ways could be a mirror image of the Orioles, and they will be a memory by July as well.

19) Boston Red Sox ↓ 7

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  The Boston Red Sox are taking on an entirely new look in 2012.  For the first time in recent memory, Jonathan Papelbon, J.D. Drew, Tim Wakefield, and Jason Varitek will not be on the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox. And it’s about time, especially after what happened last September.  Despite this new look, New GM Ben Cherington will be faced with the challenge of keeping the Sox a contender.

Downside: I don’t give a damn what anybody says, I don’t buy this pitching staff.  Jon Lester has always been over-rated in my book. The loss of John Lackey is a case of “addition by subtraction.”  Clay Buchholz walks too many guys. Who knows what Daniel Bard and Vincente Padilla really are?

Then, there’s the whole issue of that idiot Bobby Valentine. I can’t wait for the Terry Francona “Miss Me Yet?” billboards to break out all over New England.

What Actually Happened:

The starting pitching sucks, the relievers aren’t much better…and…wait for it…there’s the whole issue of that idiot Bobby Valentine.  The Terry Francona “Miss Me Yet?” billboards are coming soon.

20) New York Mets ↑ 4

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Whether its up or down, the theme once again for the Mets is hope. Hopefully, all the distractions that surrounded last season are gone with the departure of Jose Reyes. Hopefully, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana are healthy, will stay that way, and will perform up to expectations. Hopefully, there will be a resurgence of third baseman David Wright and Jason Bay now that the outfield wall has been moved in.

Downside:  Hopefully, all those things I just mentioned will happen.  Right after they all do happen, we can all join hands and visit the fairy princess together. Not only that, but this team goes nowhere as long as Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz own the team.  Let’s face it, meltdown, dumpster fire, train wreck…they all are synonymous with “Mets.”

What Actually Happened:

We’ll keep this simple…the Mets still suck, just not as much at first as we thought.

21) Oakland Athletics ↑ 8

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  America’s favorite breakfast cereal, Coco Crisp,  will still man the Oakland outfield after signing a $14 million, two-year contract with a club option for 2014 after hitting .264 with eight home runs, 54 RBI and 49 stolen bases last season. Then there the Cuban grab-bag known as Yoenis Cespedes. This kid could be the real deal.

Downside: The A’s are without many of their pitchers who brought success to the team in recent years. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Josh Outman are out of the starting rotation, while Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey are no longer in the bullpen. The one proven offensive power bat in the lineup has also departed; Josh Willingham hit 29 home runs and 98 RBI in 2011, but is now part of the Minnesota Twins.

What Actually Happened:

How the A’s have won 9 games all while being last in the league in average, slugging percentage, and hitting with runners in scoring position is a minor miracle.

22)  Colorado Rockies ↓ 2

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Troy Tulowitzki hit .302 with 36 doubles, 30 home runs, and 105 RBI in 2011. Carlos Gonzalez hit .295 with 27 doubles, 26 home runs, and 92 RBI in only 127 games. Casey Blake, Marco Scutaro, Ramon Hernandez, and Michael Cuddyer will all be joining the Colorado this season, which can only provide more cushion in a lineup that already features some of baseball’s best hitters. The crisp air in Colorado with these players and Todd Helton at the forefront can only mean runs, runs, and more runs.

Downside: The starting rotation will consist of Jeremy Guthrie, Jhoulys Chacin, and then any three out of about six possibles, including the 49-year old Jamie Moyer.

What Actually Happened:

Moyer is the best pitcher in a starting rotation consisting of guys all young enough to be Moyer’s kids. Despite that, none of the youngsters can do better than an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.35.

23) Miami Marlins ↓ 14

What We Originally Said:

Upside: I don’t think there could be a more interesting team to watch in 2012. Miami is one of three teams in the Dubsism Top Ten from the N.L. East Division and got there through having by far the most active off-season. Tey’ve got a new name, new uniforms, new logos, a new stadium, a new manager,  and of course, new players. The new Marlins Park will play host to the new-look squad under new manager and old loud mouth Ozzie Guillen, who will be leading new shortstop and reigning N.L. batting champ Jose Reyes, new closer Heath Bell, and new starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano. Added to existing Marlins Hanley Ramirezx and ace Josh Johnson, there’s no way this team won’t be entertaining at least.

Downside: This also just could be the loading of a gigantic powder-keg. Zambrano and Guillen in the same dug-out? The Marlins may want to keep the bomb squad handy at all times, not just for the volatility I just mentioned, but for the fact if this team doesn’t win right away, look for it to get blown up quick.

What Actually Happened:

Could this be…I hate to say this…but could this be yet another “dream team” that fails to perform?  How long before Jeffrey Loria is wiring the blasting caps to blow this thing up?

24)  Seattle Mariners ↓ 3

What We Originally Said:

Upside: Felix Hernandez.

Downside: This is the last year of Ichiro Suzuki’s contract with the club. The 38-year-old has seen his batting average drop 80 points over the last two seasons, so you can only expect that this will be his final season with the club unless he’s back to being the old Ichiro. In addition to Ichiro’s decline, the Mariners finished dead last in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage last year.

What Actually Happened:

Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan joined with King Felix to give the Mariners a reasonable front three in a rotation. The trouble is the lumber is still in a slumber; no Mariner has gone deep more than twice.

25) Pittsburgh Pirates ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  The Bucs are quietly cobbling together a respectable offense.  Outfielders Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and All-Star Andrew McCutchen are likely to be the the 1-2-3  hitters; all of them hit over .275 last year, and all of them swiped over 20 sacks. Neil Walker looks like a #4 hitter after hitting 17 home runs and 62 RBI in only 460 at-bats.  Plus, the Pirates may have emerging power at the corner infield spots; Garrett Jones showed some pop with 17 homers last year, and Pedro Alvarez is due for his breakout year any time now.

Downside: Last year, the Pirates gave up the third-worst opponents batting average (.270) and received the fifth-fewest quality starts from their starting five.  A.J. Burnett is supposed to be the cure for that?

What Actually Happened:

A.J. Burnett bunts a ball into his face literally within the first five times he handles a bat. This may prove to be a blessing, but the reality now is the Pirates are lousy.

26) Chicago Cubs ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Its spring, when Cubs fans everywhere have hope that at long last, this will finally be the year the winning drought in Wrigley Field ends. Plus, they off-loaded head-case first class Carlos Zambrano on the Marlins. Starlin Castro might be the bona fide star in Wrigley.

Downside: It’s not going to happen. Getting rid of Zambrano now means a pitching staff comprised of Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood; along with threat of Jeff Samardzija getting work as a starter in spring training. The Cubs have an average-at-best rotation and no replacement for Aramis Ramirez on offense. Snicker if you must, but A-Ram stacks up favorably against some historic third-basemen. He’s complied the second-most 25-home run seasons (9) for a third baseman, behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews who each had 12. Not to mention, only Chipper Jones has more seasons with at least a .300 batting average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI at the hot corner. Once again, spring becomes summer; the Cubs’drought continues.

What Actually Happened:

The Cubs are usually finished once the ivy blooms. Thanks to an unusually warm spring in Chicago, that happened early this year.

27)  San Diego Padres ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Again, you really can’t beat the weather in San Diego…and the Padres, despite the loss of Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, and Heath Bell still have a serviceable  (not great, serviceable) pitching staff currently slated to feature Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, and Cory Luebke.  Heath Bell’s closer role has been replaced by Huston Street.

Downside:  The Padres offense last year was in the bottom three in runs scored (593), batting average (.237), on-base percentage (.305) and slugging percentage (.349). The only improvements to that came in the form of Carlos Quentin, Yonder Alonso, and current AARP member Mark Kotsay.

What Actually Happened:

It’s not really that hard to meet expectations when nobody expects anything from you.

28) Houston Astros ↑ 2

What We Originally Said:

Upside:  They have some nice young talent on the team like Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, and Fernando Martinez, and they still have Carlos Lee as the lone power source on the roster.

Downside: Last year, the pitching staff was bottom five in league rankings with a 4.51 cumulative ERA, 1.42 WHIP and a .266 opponents batting average en route to a league worst 56-106 record. That staff didn’t get any better.

What Actually Happened:

Wandy Rodriguez has respectable numbers for a pitcher.  In Houston, that makes him one of a dozen.

29) Minnesota Twins ↓ 1

What We Originally Said:

Upside: It is possible they get production from the faces of the franchise, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Last year thanks to injuries, Mauer hit .287 with three home runs and 30 RBI, while Morneau hit a horrid .227 with four home runs and 30 RBI.

Downside: Only three players on the Twins saw more than 100 games of action last year. There’s Michael Cuddyer, who is now getting his mail in Colorado, outfielder Ben Revere, and third baseman Danny Valencia. These might be the only Twins who matter in 2012.

What Actually Happened:

When does Ron Gardenhire become Ron Garden-fired? The Twins haven’t canned a manager since the same year Jamie Moyer made his major league debut (yes, every single baseball time reference on this blog will orbit around Planet Moyer). The last manager to be fired by the Minnesota Twins was Ray Miller on September 12th, 1986.  Let’s be honest, Garden-fired’s success came from players developed by Tom Kelly, and Garden-fired’s 6-21 play-off record makes him one of the worst post-season mangers ever. However, to be fair, it isn’t like he is going to get a chance to change those numbers anytime soon.

30) Kansas City Royals ↓ 13

What We Originally Said:

Upside: The club is loaded with young talent like Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar.  Alex Gordon turned a corner in 2011. Billy Butler, Jeff Francoeur, and Jason Kendall provide veteran leadership, and there are more top prospects on the way like Wil Myers and Bubba Starling. The Royals also added pitching with starter Jonathan Sanchez and closer Jonathan Broxton.

Downside: General Manager Dayton Moore is a bit of an unproven commodity, so there’s no guarantee that he isn’t going to mortgage the future if the fans expectations suddenly outstrip the team’s talent.

What Actually Happened:

This team couldn’t suck more if you gave them a fully-automated, electrically-powered, full-on sucking machine. This team couldn’t suck more if you crossed them with Linda Lovelace and the Vietnamese “Me love you long time” girl from Full Metal Jacket.  It all starts when you have to say Bruce Chen is your Opening Day starter. For every other team in the league, that’ s an April Fools’ joke. For the Royals, that’s a fucking sucking reality.





The Dubsism 2012 Pre-Season Baseball Power Rankings

14 03 2012

1)  Los Angeles Angels

Upside: This team has ownership that isn’t afraid to make a move. Due to the free-agent signing of first baseman Albert Pujols and starting pitcher C.J. Wilson, the Angels committed $331.5 million, which left little room for the team to add anyone else significant during the offseason. New GM Jerry DiPoto did, however, get his hands on a decent bat bat behind the plate in Chris Iannetta, and reliable veteran relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins becomes the latest on the list of guys who have played for both of my two favorite teams (Angels and Twins).

Pujols adds to a lineup which featured six players with double-digit home runs, and six with over 59 RBI. Top prospects in catcher Hank Conger and outfielder Mike Trout will also be in the running for a full season with the club.

C.J. Wilson adds to a rotation which already featured 2011 A.L. All-Star Game starter Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.

Downside: Which Vernon Wells do the Angels get in 2012?

2) New York Yankees

Upside: The Yankees upgraded their pitching staff by adding Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda, and by subtracting A.J. Burnett.  Prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos will soon find their way to the major league rotation as well. If the pitching staff gels and Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, and Mark Teixeira perform as expected, this team will prove formidable.

Downside:  Don’t look now, but this team isn’t getting any younger.

3)  Philadelphia Phillies

Upside: The starting rotation is as good as it gets with Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Vance Worley. New closer Jonathan Papelbon should help shore up the bullpen.

Downside:  If the Yankees and the Philles make the World Series, they may want to get the games done before 4 p.m., so they can all hit the early-bird specials at Denny’s. This is another team that is aging before our eyes. Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins are 33, Chase Utley is 32, and Placido Polanco tops the list at 36. Not to mention, the Phillies have lost have lost four of their last five postseason series.

4) Atlanta Braves

Upside: Last year, I said the Braves were a collection of “what-ifs” built around a solid core of just enough hitting and just enough pitching. Now, enough of those questions became facts so that barring injuries, the Braves can contend in the NL East.

Downside: The Braves finished 13 games back of the Phillies last season, and they way the season ended for them still has to sting. The question is did they improve enough to fix those issues?

5) Texas Rangers

Upside:  The only team in the A.L. West they have to worry about is the Angels. The Rangers have a line-up tailor-made to their hitter-friendly park, so there is no reason they can’t lead the league in team batting average again. Not to mention, they placed top five in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Downside: The Rangers are gambling in the wake of losing C.J. Wilson to division-rival Los Angeles with their $103 million investment in Yu Darvish and moving  Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation for the first time in his major league career. Then there’s the Josh Hamilton situation…we all know about the off-the-field issues, but don’t forget the former AL MVP has been hampered by injuries lately as well.  Now contract talks are stalled, and who knows what impact that will have.

6) Detroit Tigers

Upside: Last season, the Motor City Kitties finished in the top four in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage. The numbers can only get better with the offseason acquisition of first baseman Prince Fielder, who just happens to be a career .282 hitter averaging over 32 home runs and 93 RBI per season over the last six years.

Downside: How does the move of Cabrera back to third base work out? What will be the impact of losing DH Victor Martinez? And I’m not sold on the rotation beyond Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.

7) Tampa Bay Rays

Upside: Their pitching staff will carry them in 2012.  David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Matt Moore form a six-man rotation that just might let the Rays continue their average 92 wins over the last four seasons. Only three teams in the majors had a higher average with one of the lowest four-year payroll totals in baseball at $222 million.

Downside: The Rays need a new fanbase and stadium.

8 )  Cincinnati Reds

Upside:  General Manager Walt Jocketty managed to improve the starting rotation by adding former Padres ace Mat Latos, the bullpen by bringing in Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall, and added some needed depth by acquiring Wilson Valdez, Willie Harris, and Ryan Ludwick. With these additions to the existing weapons like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the fact the N.L. Central no longer has the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the Reds have the potential once again to seize the top spot in the division.

Downside: That pitching staff is managed by Dusty “The Ligament Shredder” Baker, the same Dusty Bake who think base-runners “just clog up the basepaths.”

9) Miami Marlins

Upside: I don’t think there could be a more interesting team to watch in 2012. Miami is one of three teams in the Dubsism Top Ten from the N.L. East Division and got there through having by far the most active off-season. Tey’ve got a new name, new uniforms, new logos, a new stadium, a new manager,  and of course, new players. The new Marlins Park will play host to the new-look squad under new manager and old loud mouth Ozzie Guillen, who will be leading new shortstop and reigning N.L. batting champ Jose Reyes, new closer Heath Bell, and new starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano. Added to existing Marlins Hanley Ramirezx and ace Josh Johnson, there’s no way this team won’t be entertaining at least.

Downside: This also just could be the loading of a gigantic powder-keg. Zambrano and Guillen in the same dug-out? The Marlins may want to keep the bomb squad handy at all times, not just for the volatility I just mentioned, but for the fact if this team doesn’t win right away, look for it to get blown up quick.

10) St. Louis Cardinals

Upside: Despite losing Albert Pujols and manager Tony La Russa, the Cardinals still have enough weapons to be a factor in the N.L. Central. Starter Adam Wainwright comes back from Tommy John surgery, and he leads a rotation featuring Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, and Kyle Lohse. Also, could this be the breakout year for World Series MVP David Freese? His 21 RBI over 18 postseason games last October could signal the start of something big.

Downside: Let’s face it…losing Albert Pujols would hurt any line-up. This means Lance Berkman has to at least come close to the .301/31 HR/94 RBI campaign he put up in 2011, and Matt Holliday has to be a .300/25 HR/RBI guy as well.

11)  San Francisco Giants

Upside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner form one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in the game.

Downside: The San Francisco Giants have one of the worst offenses in baseball. With the losses of Cody Ross and Carlos Beltran, this team may find itself relying on a 3-4-5 heart of the order consisting of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt.

12) Boston Red Sox

Upside:  The Boston Red Sox are taking on an entirely new look in 2012.  For the first time in recent memory, Jonathan Papelbon, J.D. Drew, Tim Wakefield, and Jason Varitek will not be on the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox. And it’s about time, especially after what happened last September.  Despite this new look, New GM Ben Cherington will be faced with the challenge of keeping the Sox a contender.

Downside: I don’t give a damn what anybody says, I don’t buy this pitching staff.  Jon Lester has always been over-rated in my book. The loss of John Lackey is a case of “addition by subtraction.”  Clay Buchholz walks too many guys. Who knows what Daniel Bard and Vincente Padilla really are?

Then, there the whole issue of that idiot Bobby Valentine. I can’t wait for the Terry Francona “Miss Me Yet?” billboards to break out all over New England.

13) Arizona Diamondbacks

Upside: In a division heavy in pitching, the D-backs chose bulk by getting potential question mark Trevor Cahill from Oakland and re-signing their own free agent, Joe Saunders, after non-tendering him at the December deadline for arbitration-eligibles. Kennedy, Hudson and Saunders logged career highs in innings last season, and it will be interesting to see if they can repeat that…see below…

Downside:  Even though the Arizona Diamondbacks finished first place in the NL West Division at 94-68, their starting rotation was filled with career-best seasons:

  • Ian Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 earned run average and 198 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
  • Daniel Hudson went 16-12 with a 3.49 earned run average and 169 strikeouts in 222 innings pitched.
  • Joe Saunders went 12-13 with 3.69 earned run average and 108 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched.
  • Josh Collmenter went 10-10 with a 3.38 earned run average and 100 strikeouts in 154.1 innings pitched.

The D-backs line-up can be inconsistent as well – they struggled to hit over .250 as team despite everyday players Gerardo Parra, Justin Upton and Miguel Montero hitting .292, .289 and .282 respectively.

14) Washington Nationals

Upside: The Nationals have one of the best young rotations in baseball.  Strasburg appears ready to return to his pre- Tommy John surgery condition, and the acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson were huge.  If Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Chien-Ming Wang can stay away from the injury problems that have bugged them, the Nationals should be able to stay in most games based on their pitching alone.  But the Nats should be stronger in the middle of the order since Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse, and Danny Espinosa all could be 25 HR, 90 RBI guys.

Downside: The Nats have three question marks. The first is at first base; Adam LaRoche played only 43 games last year before season-ending surgery and hit just .172. Can he return to the form of his previous years? However, Michael Morse blossomed at first base once LaRoche went down.  Secondly, the Nats have an issue in the lead-off spot. Ian  Desmond is going to start the season there, but he’ll have to learn to be more patient.  He’s drawn only 63 walks in 308 games during 2010 and 2011. Lastly there’s the matter of timing. This needs to be the year the Nats take a step toward the future because this is the last year before the expectations are going to go up. They can still be mediocre this year, but if they finish third or worse in 2013, they may just become a red version of the Cubs.

15) Toronto Blue Jays

Upside: Jose Bautista.  In 2010, he hit .260 with 35 doubles, 54 home runs and 124 RBI. In 2011, he hit .302 with 24 doubles, 43 home runs, and 103 RBI. He has to figure in the MVP race.

Downside: The Blue Jays could have a bright future, but the future isn’t today.  Ricky Romero has also been nothing short of excellent for the club. Last season, the 27-year-old went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts. It’s time to see if youngsters Brett Lawrie,  Anthony Gose, and catcher Travis D’Arnaud can live up to expectations.

16) Milwaukee Brewers

Upside:  Even though Miller Park is known for being tough on right-handed sluggers, the Brewers brought in third baseman Aramis Ramirez. He will need to have a Beltre-like season (.300/25 HR/90 RBIs) to help off-set the loss of Prince Fielder.

Downside: The big questions: Can Mat Gamel prove he is ready to be a major league first-baseman, including posting some power numbers at the plate? Can Wily Peralta develop into a credible big-league starter? Then there’s the elephant in the room…the Ryan Braun situation and what impact it may have…

17) Kansas City Royals

Upside: The club is loaded with young talent like Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar.  Alex Gordon turned a corner in 2011. Billy Butler, Jeff Francoeur, and Jason Kendall provide veteran leadership, and there are more top prospects on the way like Wil Myers and Bubba Starling. The Royals also added pitching with starter Jonathan Sanchez and closer Jonathan Broxton.

Downside: General Manager Dayton Moore is a bit of an unproven commodity, so there’s no guarantee that he isn’t going to mortgage the future if the fans expectations suddenly outstrip the team’s talent.

18) Los Angeles Dodgers

Upside:  Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young last year and is a contender for the award again. He is signed with the Dodgers through 2013.  Matt Kemp was the runner-up for the NL MVP Award, and was a single dinger away from joining the 40HR/40 stolen base club.  The Dodgers have him locked up through 2019.

Downside: They still have yet to rid themselves of Frank McCourt.

19) Cleveland Indians

Upside:  Shin-Soo Choo seems to be healthy. Vinne Pestano and Nick Hagadone could be the foundations of a solid, young bullpen.  Carlos Santana is a potential All-Star.

Downside: Fausto Carmona (or whoever he really is) may never get back into the country and Grady Sizemore is probably finished as an effective major league player. The heyday for this team was fifteen years ago, and unless you can find a way to add Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, and Jake Taylor to the roster, there will be more than one long summer in Cleveland’s near future.

20)  Colorado Rockies

Upside: Troy Tulowitzki hit .302 with 36 doubles, 30 home runs, and 105 RBI in 2011. Carlos Gonzalez hit .295 with 27 doubles, 26 home runs, and 92 RBI in only 127 games. Casey Blake, Marco Scutaro, Ramon Hernandez, and Michael Cuddyer will all be joining the Colorado this season, which can only provide more cushion in a lineup that already features some of baseball’s best hitters. The crisp air in Colorado with these players and Todd Helton at the forefront can only mean runs, runs, and more runs.

Downside: The starting rotation will consist of Jeremy Guthrie, Jhoulys Chacin, and then any three out of about six possibles, including the 49-year old Jamie Moyer.

21)  Seattle Mariners

Upside: Felix Hernandez.

Downside: This is the last year of Ichiro Suzuki’s contract with the club. The 38-year-old has seen his batting average drop 80 points over the last two seasons, so you can only expect that this will be his final season with the club unless he’s back to being the old Ichiro. In addition to Ichiro’s decline, the Mariners finished dead last in runs scored, batting average, on-base and slugging percentage last year.

22) Baltimore Orioles

Upside: As bad as there were in 2011, their offense wasn’t all that bad and they’ve kept the core of it.  If Mark Reynolds can produce another 30-plus home run season, and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continue their consistent hitting, the Orioles could end up being a mediocre team.

Downside:  The Orioles had the worst off-season of any Major League team.  If you don’t agree, here are their of-season acquisitions: pitchers Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jason Hammel, and Matt Lindstrom; and position players Wilson Betemit, Endy Chavez and Taylor Teagarden.

23) Chicago White Sox

Upside: General Manager Ken Williams also showed a desire to rebuild his club by getting rid of longtime White Sox starter Mark Buehrle and letting go of Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Jason Frasor, Sergio Santos, and Omar Vizquel.

Downside: General Manager Ken Williams has no idea how to rebuild a club. He replaced staff ace Mark Buerhle by over-paying for the ever-fraudulent John Danks.  The rest of the starting rotation will depend on the fragile Jake Peavy and the unproven Chris Sale.

24) New York Mets

Upside: Whether its up or down, the theme once again for the Mets is hope. Hopefully, all the distractions that surrounded last season are gone with the departure of Jose Reyes. Hopefully, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana are healthy, will stay that way, and will perform up to expectations. Hopefully, there will be a resurgence of third baseman David Wright and Jason Bay now that the outfield wall has been moved in.

Downside:  Hopefully, all those things I just mentioned will happen.  Right after they all do happen, we can all join hands and visit the fairy princess together. Not only that, but this team goes nowhere as long as Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz own the team.  Let’s face it, meltdown, dumpster fire, train wreck…they all are synonymous with “Mets.”

25) Pittsburgh Pirates

Upside:  The Bucs are quietly cobbling together a respectable offense.  Outfielders Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and All-Star Andrew McCutchen are likely to be the the 1-2-3  hitters; all of them hit over .275 last year, and all of them swiped over 20 sacks. Neil Walker looks like a #4 hitter after hitting 17 home runs and 62 RBI in only 460 at-bats.  Plus, the Pirates may have emerging power at the corner infield spots; Garrett Jones showed some pop with 17 homers last year, and Pedro Alvarez is due for his breakout year any time now.

Downside: Last year, the Pirates gave up the third-worst opponents batting average (.270) and received the fifth-fewest quality starts from their starting five.  A.J. Burnett is supposed to be the cure for that?

26) Chicago Cubs

Upside: Its spring, when Cubs fans everywhere have hope that at long last, this will finally be the year the winning drought in Wrigley Field ends. Plus, they off-loaded head-case first class Carlos Zambrano on the Marlins. Starlin Castro might be the bona fide star in Wrigley.

Downside: It’s not going to happen. Getting rid of Zambrano now means a pitching staff comprised of Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood; along with threat of Jeff Samardzija getting work as a starter in spring training. The Cubs have an average-at-best rotation and no replacement for Aramis Ramirez on offense. Snicker if you must, but A-Ram stacks up favorably against some historic third-basemen. He’s complied the second-most 25-home run seasons (9) for a third baseman, behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews who each had 12. Not to mention, only Chipper Jones has more seasons with at least a .300 batting average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI at the hot corner. Once again, spring becomes summer; the Cubs’drought continues.

27)  San Diego Padres

Upside: Again, you really can’t beat the weather in San Diego…and the Padres, despite the loss of Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, and Heath Bell still have a serviceable  (not great, serviceable) pitching staff currently slated to feature Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, and Cory Luebke.  Heath Bell’s closer role has been replaced by Huston Street.

Downside:  The Padres offense last year was in the bottom three in runs scored (593), batting average (.237), on-base percentage (.305) and slugging percentage (.349). The only improvements to that came in the form of Carlos Quentin, Yonder Alonso, and current AARP member Mark Kotsay.

28) Minnesota Twins

Upside: It is possible they get production from the faces of the franchise, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Last year thanks to injuries, Mauer hit .287 with three home runs and 30 RBI, while Morneau hit a horrid .227 with four home runs and 30 RBI.

Downside: Only three players on the Twins saw more than 100 games of action last year. There’s Michael Cuddyer, who is now getting his mail in Colorado, outfielder Ben Revere, and third baseman Danny Valencia. These might be the only Twins who matter in 2012.

29) Oakland Athletics

Upside:  America’s favorite breakfast cereal, Coco Crisp,  will still man the Oakland outfield after signing a $14 million, two-year contract with a club option for 2014 after hitting .264 with eight home runs, 54 RBI and 49 stolen bases last season. Then there the Cuban grab-bag known as Yoenis Cespedes. This kid could be the real deal.

Downside: The A’s are without many of their pitchers who brought success to the team in recent years. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Josh Outman are out of the starting rotation, while Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey are no longer in the bullpen. The one proven offensive power bat in the lineup has also departed; Josh Willingham hit 29 home runs and 98 RBI in 2011, but is now part of the Minnesota Twins.

30) Houston Astros

Upside:  They have some nice young talent on the team like Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, and Fernando Martinez, and they still have Carlos Lee as the lone power source on the roster.

Downside: Last year, the pitching staff was bottom five in league rankings with a 4.51 cumulative ERA, 1.42 WHIP and a .266 opponents batting average en route to a league worst 56-106 record. That staff didn’t get any better.

- Dubsism is a proud member of the Sports Blog Movement





The Dubsism “Anti-Kiper” 2012 NFL Draft Board

6 02 2012

Now that we are finally past the Super Bowl, it is time to address the needs of your team heading into the NFL Draft. So, while you are spending today erasing that fog in your head made of far too much cheap beer and delivery pizza, take a few moments to look forward so that your team can give itself a better shot to be where the Giants find themselves today.

Everybody has a NFL Draft “Big Board.” But unlike the ones you  get from the “professionals” at ESPN, we here at Dubsism offer a draft board based on the fact we actually have watched college football at some point in our lifetimes. This means we don’t care about how much we love to hear our own bloviation, there isn’t another blog out there taking shots at us yet (so we don’t have that whole “Mel Kiper/Todd McShay thing happening), and we aren’t worried about how much face time our increasingly oddly-shaped pompadour gets.

Rather, we would rather put out rookie  draft “shopping list” that we feel is our best effort to help you, the NFL fan who knows almost nothing about college football beyond Andrew Luck. We also won’t give you any flowery summaries of these players; there’s eight billion other sites doing that. Our model is you peruse the lists, both overall and by position, and decide which of these guys may help plug the numerous holes your favorite team has. However, we don’t bother with kickers and punters, largely because they are literally a “dime-a-dozen” and if you think a kicker is all that separates your team from a Super Bowl, you likely need a psychiatrist more than a draft board.

After the Super Bowl, we will revisit this list with some advice on what your sorry-ass team needs to do in order to improve itself, and this board will play a large part in that counsel. The one thing I would caution you against is that we here at Dubsism are firm believers in the “Mike Mamula” rule; meaning we don’t put much stock in the witchcraft that are the NFL Combines, so don’t expect this board to change significantly.

The Top Overall “Yes You Do Need Me, You Better Draft Me” 64:

  1. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
  2. Matt Kalil OT USC
  3. Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
  4. Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
  5. Trent Richardson RB Alabama
  6. Morris Claiborne CB LSU
  7. Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
  8. Riley Reiff OT Iowa
  9. Devon Still DT Penn State
  10. Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State
  11. Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
  12. Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
  13. Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina
  14. David DeCastro G Stanford
  15. Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
  16. Whitney Mercilus OLB Illinois
  17. Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi St
  18. Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College
  19. Zach Brown ILB North Carolina
  20. Mike Adams OT Ohio State
  21. Peter Konz C Wisconsin
  22. Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
  23. Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
  24. Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
  25. Mark Barron S Alabama
  26. Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
  27. Nick Perry DE USC
  28. Michael Brockers DE LSU
  29. Chris Polk RB Washington
  30. Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
  31. Andre Branch OLB Clemson
  32. Robert Turbin RB Utah State
  33. Dontari Poe DT Memphis
  34. Dont’a Hightower ILB Alabama
  35. Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
  36. Bobby Massie OT Mississippi
  37. Kendall Wright WR Baylor
  38. Lamar Miller RB Miami (FL)
  39. Levy Adcock OT Oklahoma State
  40. Bruce Irvin DE West Virginia
  41. Nick Foles QB Arizona
  42. Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech
  43. Kelechi Osemele G Iowa State
  44. Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
  45. Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
  46. Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
  47. LaMichael James RB Oregon
  48. Juron Criner WR Arizona
  49. Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
  50. Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
  51. David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
  52. Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
  53. Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
  54. Jared Crick DE Nebraska
  55. Brandon Washington G Miami (FL)
  56. Andrew Datko OT Florida State
  57. Coby Fleener TE Stanford
  58. Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
  59. Dwight Jones WR North Carolina
  60. Ben Jones C Georgia
  61. Coryell Judie CB Texas A&M
  62. Alameda Ta’amu DT Washington
  63. Brandon Mosley OT Auburn
  64. Josh Chapman DT Alabama

The Top 15 By Position:

Quarterbacks

  1. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
  2. Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
  3. Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
  4. Nick Foles QB Arizona
  5. Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
  6. B.J. Coleman QB Chattanooga
  7. Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
  8. Kellen Moore QB Boise State
  9. Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State
  10. Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
  11. Jacory Harris QB Miami (FL)
  12. Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin
  13. G.J. Kinne QB Tulsa
  14. Patrick Witt QB Yale
  15. Dominique Davis QB East Carolina

Running Backs

  1. Trent Richardson RB Alabama
  2. Chris Polk RB Washington
  3. Robert Turbin RB Utah State
  4. Lamar Miller RB Miami (FL)
  5. LaMichael James RB Oregon
  6. David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
  7. Doug Martin RB Boise State
  8. Bernard Pierce RB Temple
  9. Cyrus Gray RB Texas A&M
  10. Terrance Ganaway RB Baylor
  11. Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
  12. Dan Herron RB Ohio State
  13. Ronnie Hillman RB San Diego State
  14. Vick Ballard RB Mississippi State
  15. Tauren Poole RB Tennessee

Wide Receivers

  1. Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
  2. Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
  3. Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
  4. Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
  5. Kendall Wright WR Baylor
  6. Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech
  7. Juron Criner WR Arizona
  8. Dwight Jones WR North Carolina
  9. T.Y. Hilton WR Florida Int’l
  10. Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
  11. Marvin McNutt WR Iowa
  12. A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois
  13. Ryan Broyles WR Oklahoma
  14. Jeff Fuller WR Texas A&M
  15. Jarius Wright WR Arkansas

Tight Ends

  1. Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
  2. Coby Fleener TE Stanford
  3. Orson Charles TE Georgia
  4. Ladarius Green TE Louisiana-Lafayette
  5. Michael Egnew TE Missouri
  6. Brian Linthicum TE Michigan State
  7. Rhett Ellison TE USC
  8. Kevin Koger TE Michigan
  9. David Paulson TE Oregon
  10. George Bryan TE North Carolina State
  11. Josh Chichester TE Louisville
  12. Deangelo Peterson TE LSU
  13. Anthony Miller TE California
  14. Beau Reliford TE Florida State
  15. Nick Provo TE Syracuse

Offensive Tackles

  1. Matt Kalil OT USC
  2. Riley Reiff OT Iowa
  3. Mike Adams OT Ohio State
  4. Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
  5. Bobby Massie OT Mississippi
  6. Levy Adcock OT Oklahoma State
  7. Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
  8. Andrew Datko OT Florida State
  9. Brandon Mosley OT Auburn
  10. Nate Potter OT Boise State
  11. Mitchell Schwartz OT California
  12. Tony Bergstrom OT Utah
  13. Matt McCants OT UAB
  14. Landon Walker OT Clemson
  15. Tom Compton OT South Dakota

Interior Offensive Lineman

  1. David DeCastro G Stanford
  2. Peter Konz C Wisconsin
  3. Kelechi Osemele G Iowa State
  4. Brandon Washington G Miami (FL)
  5. Ben Jones C Georgia
  6. Cordy Glenn G Georgia
  7. Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin
  8. William Vlachos C Alabama
  9. Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State
  10. James Brown G Troy
  11. Quinton Saulsberry C Mississippi State
  12. Senio Kelemete G Washington
  13. Brandon Brooks G Miami (OH)
  14. David Molk C Michigan
  15. Lucas Nix G Pittsburgh

Defensive Tackles

  1. Devon Still DT Penn State
  2. Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi St
  3. Dontari Poe DT Memphis
  4. Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
  5. Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
  6. Alameda Ta’amu DT Washington
  7. Josh Chapman DT Alabama
  8. Cam Johnson DT Virginia
  9. Marcus Forston DT Miami (FL)
  10. Hebron Fangupo DT BYU
  11. Jaye Howard DT Florida
  12. Mike Daniels DT Iowa
  13. Brett Roy DT Nevada
  14. Mike Martin DT Michigan
  15. Nicolas Jean-Baptiste DT Baylor

Defensive Ends

  1. Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina
  2. Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
  3. Nick Perry DE USC
  4. Michael Brockers DE LSU
  5. Bruce Irvin DE West Virginia
  6. Jared Crick DE Nebraska
  7. Vinny Curry DE Marshall
  8. Kendall Reyes DE Connecticut
  9. Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
  10. Kheeston Randall DE Texas
  11. Jonathan Massaquoi DE Troy
  12. Jake Bequette DE Arkansas
  13. Billy Winn DE Boise State
  14. Matt Conrath DE Virginia
  15. Trevor Guyton DE California

Outside Linebackers

  1. Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
  2. Whitney Mercilus OLB Illinois
  3. Andre Branch OLB Clemson
  4. Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
  5. Bobby Wagner OLB Utah State
  6. Lavonte David OLB Nebraska
  7. Travis Lewis OLB Oklahoma
  8. Brandon Lindsey OLB Pittsburgh
  9. Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas
  10. Keenan Robinson OLB Texas
  11. Tank Carder OLB TCU
  12. Nigel Bradham OLB Florida State
  13. Tyler Nielsen OLB Iowa
  14. Julian Miller OLB West Virginia
  15. Josh Kaddu OLB Oregon

Inside Linebackers

  1. Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State
  2. Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College
  3. Zach Brown ILB North Carolina
  4. Dont’a Hightower ILB Alabama
  5. Sean Spence ILB Miami (FL)
  6. Audie Cole ILB North Carolina State
  7. James-Michael Johnson ILB Nevada
  8. Terrell Manning ILB North Carolina State
  9. Mychal Kendricks ILB California
  10. Nathan Stupar ILB Penn State
  11. Chris Galippo ILB USC
  12. Jerry Franklin ILB Arkansas
  13. Max Gruder ILB Pittsburgh
  14. Adrien Cole ILB Louisiana Tech
  15. D.J. Holt ILB California

Cornerbacks

  1. Morris Claiborne CB LSU
  2. Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
  3. Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
  4. Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
  5. Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
  6. Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
  7. Coryell Judie CB Texas A&M
  8. Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
  9. Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
  10. Casey Hayward CB Vanderbilt
  11. Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
  12. Shaun Prater CB Iowa
  13. Leonard Johnson CB Iowa State
  14. Josh Robinson CB Central Florida
  15. Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina

Safeties

  1. Mark Barron S Alabama
  2. Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
  3. Aaron Henry S Wisconsin
  4. Antonio Allen S South Carolina
  5. Trenton Robinson S Michigan State
  6. Harrison Smith S Notre Dame
  7. Brandon Taylor S LSU
  8. Eddie Whitley S Virginia Tech
  9. George Iloka S Boise State
  10. Winston Guy S Kentucky
  11. Tysyn Hartman S Kansas State
  12. Duke Ihenacho S San Jose State
  13. D’Anton Lynn S Penn State
  14. Janzen Jackson S McNeese State
  15. Kelcie McCray S Arkansas State




The Dubsism 2011-2012 College Football Bowl Recap: My Wife Did In Fact Know More Than I Do

10 01 2012

EDITOR’S NOTE: The original predictions that were made here back in August were based on an assumption the NCAA will would rule Ohio State, Miami (FL), and Auburn ineligible for post-season competition. These picks are noted, despite the fact that never happened; only Miami (FL) took itself out of bowl consideration. That’s not an excuse for my atrocious prognostication, but it’s what I’ve got.

As previously mentioned, since my wife gets to listen to most of these rants before they ever hit the interwebz, she thinks she actually knows more than me when it comes to college football. Of course, this meant a bowl-picking challenge…and she won.

Not only did she win, but like a typical joyless woman, she starts adding victory conditions after she knew she was likely to win. First, she tried to con me out of a dinner, one whose cost escalated with her increasing odds of victory.  Then, I had to listen to hour upon hour of her cackling crap, most of which was simply a lot of misplaced chatter compensating for her lousy fantasy football team. Then to top it off, there came demands to fill this post with images of glitter, unicorns, and some other stuff that was never going to happen.

And she wonders why she got slapped.

The Totals:

  • Dubsism: 23 correct picks out of 35 total
  • Mrs. Dubsism: 26 correct picks out of 35 total
The last week’s worth of gory details are shown here; previous lists detailing my epic domestic failure are here and here.

BCS Championship:

  • Monday, January 9th, New Orleans, Louisiana,  Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2 – Alabama (#1 SEC) vs. Wisconsin (#1 Big Ten)
  • Payout: $18,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: LSU (BCS #1, SEC #1) vs. Alabama (BCS#2, SEC #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: LSU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Alabama
  • The Actual Outcome: Alabama 21, LSU 0

Fiesta Bowl:

  • Thursday, January 5th, Glendale Arizona, University of Phoenix Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 Champion/BCS vs. BCS At-Large – Oklahoma (#1 Big 12) vs. Boise State (#1 MWC)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup:  Oklahoma State (#1 Big 12) vs. Stanford (#2 Pac-12, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oklahoma State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction:  Stanford
  • The Actual Outcome: Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 38

Rose Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Pasadena, California; Rose Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  Big Ten Champion/BCS vs. Pac-12 Champion/BCS – Oregon (#1 Pac-12) vs. Nebraska (#2 Big Ten)*
  • Payout : $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Wisconsin (Big Ten #1) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 #1)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oregon
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Wisconsin
  • The Actual Outcome: Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38

* I thought Nebraska would replace the Big Ten Champion (Wisconsin) which would be in BCS Championship. Didn’t happen.

Orange Bowl:

  • Wednesday, January 4th; Miami, Florida; Dolphin Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC Champion vs. Big East Champion/BCS – Florida State (#1 ACC) vs. West Virginia (#1 Big East)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Clemson (ACC #1) vs. West Virginia (Big East #1, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Clemson
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Clemson
  • The Actual Outcome: West Virginia 70, Clemson 33

Sugar Bowl:

  • Tuesday, January 3rd; New Orleans, Louisiana; Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: SEC Champion BCS vs. Big East Champion/BCS –  LSU (#2 SEC)* vs. Oklahoma State (#2 Big 12)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchupt: Michigan (Big Ten #2*, BCS at-large) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC #2, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Michigan
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Michigan
  • The Actual Outcome: Michigan 23, Virginia Tech 20
*I thought LSU would replace the SEC Champion (Alabama) which would be in BCS Championship. Half-right…Michigan ends up here because of two SEC teams being in the BCS championship game.

Capital One Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Orlando, Florida; Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2 – South Carolina (#3 SEC) vs. Michigan State (#4 Big Ten)*
  • Payout: $4,600,000
  • Actual Matchup: South Carolina (SEC #3) vs. Nebraska (Big Ten #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction:  South Carolina
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction:  South Carolina
  • The Actual Outcome: South Carolina 30, Nebraska 13

*I thought Michigan State would replace Ohio State since we assumed the NCAA would rule them ineligible. Total whiff. I’d like to thank the NCAA for getting my back on that one.

Cotton Bowl Classic:

  • Friday, January 6th; Dallas, Texas; Cowboys Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3 or #4 – Texas A&M (Big 12 #3) vs. Arkansas (SEC #4)
  • Payout: $3,625,000
  • Actual Matchup: Kansas State (Big 12 #2) vs. Arkansas (SEC #4)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Arkansas
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Kansas State
  • The Actual Outcome: Arkansas 29, Kansas State 16

Outback Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Tampa, Florida; Raymond James Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big Ten #3  vs. SEC #3 , #4, or #5  - Penn State (#5 Big Ten) vs. Mississippi State (#6 SEC) 
  • Payout $3,500,000
  • Actual Matchup:  Michigan State (Big Ten #4) vs. Georgia (SEC #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Michigan State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Michigan State
  • The Actual Outcome:  Michigan State 33, Georgia 30

Gator Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Jacksonville, Florida; Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 10 #4 or #5 vs. SEC #6 – Michigan (#7 Big Ten) vs. Florida (#8 SEC)
  • Payout: $2,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Ohio State (Big Ten #6) vs. Florida (SEC #7)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Ohio State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Florida
  • The Actual Outcome: Florida 24, Ohio State 17

TicketCity Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Dallas, Texas, Cotton Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big Ten #7 vs. C-USA #2 – Illinois (#9 Big Ten) vs. Tulsa (#2 C-USA)
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Actual Matchup: Penn State (Big Ten #7) vs. Houston (C-USA #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Penn State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Penn State
  • The Actual Outcome: Houston 30, Penn State 14

BBVA Compass Bowl:

  • Saturday, January 7th; Birmingham, Alabama; Legion Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #5 vs. SEC #8 – Connecticut (#4 Big East) vs. Alabama – Birmingham (C-USA #5*)
  • Payout: $900,000 SEC; $600,000 Big East
  • Actual Matchup: Pittsburgh (Big East #5) vs. SMU (C-USA #4*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: SMU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: SMU
  • The Actual Outcome: SMU 28. Pittsburgh 6
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

  • Sunday, January 8th; Mobile, Alabama; Ladd Peebles Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MAC #1 0r #2 vs. Sun Belt #2 – Toledo  (#1 MAC) vs. Troy (#2 Sun Belt)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Northern Illinois (MAC #1) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Northern Illinois
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Northern Illinois
  • The Actual Outcome: Northern Illinois 38, Arkansas State 20




The Dubsism 2011-2012 College Football Bowl Recap: Did My Wife In Fact Know More Than I Do? The Second Week’s Results

1 01 2012

EDITOR’S NOTE: The original predictions that were made here back in August were based on an assumption the NCAA will would rule Ohio State, Miami (FL), and Auburn ineligible for post-season competition. These picks are noted, despite the fact that never happened; only Miami (FL) took itself out of bowl consideration. That’s not an excuse for my atrocious prognostication, but it’s what I’ve got.

As previously mentioned, since my wife gets to listen to most of these rants before they ever hit the interwebz, she thinks she actually knows more than me when it comes to college football. Of course, this meant a bowl-picking challenge…and not only is she winning, she’s kicking my ass.

I may have to get a divorce.

Here’s the gory details.

The Totals:

  • Dubsism: 6 out of 7 games week one,  9 out of 16 games this week, fifteen total correct picks (33 total)
  • Mrs. Dubsism: 7 out of 7 games week one,  12 out of 16 games this week, nineteen total correct picks (33 total)

Insight Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; Tempe, Arizona; Sun Devil Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5 – Missouri (#4 Big 12) vs. Iowa (#6 Big Ten)
  • Payout: $3,350,000
  • Actual Matchup: Oklahoma (Big 12 #4) vs. Iowa (Big Ten #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oklahoma
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Iowa
  • The Actual Outcome: Oklahoma 31, Iowa 14

Chick-Fil-A Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; Atlanta, Georgia; Georgia Dome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #2 vs. SEC #5 – Virginia Tech (ACC #2) vs. Georgia (SEC #6)*
  • Payout: $3,967,500 ACC; $2,932,500 SEC
  • Actual Matchup: Virginia (ACC #3) vs. Auburn (SEC #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Auburn
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Auburn
  • The Actual Outcome: Auburn 43, Virginia 24

* Again, I had Georgia here as I thought Auburn would be ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Fat chance.

Alamo Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 29th; San Antonio, Texas, Alamodome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #2 vs. Big 12 #3 – Stanford (#2 Pac-12) vs. Texas (#5 Big 12)
  • Payout: $3,175,000
  • Actual Matchup: Washington (Pac-12 #3) vs. Baylor (Big 12 #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Baylor
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Baylor
  • The Actual Outcome: Baylor 67, Washington 56

Champs Sports Bowl:

  • Friday, December 29th, Orlando, Florida; Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #2 vs. ACC #3 – South Florida (#2 Big East) vs. North Carolina (#4 ACC)*
  • Payout: $2,325,000
  • Actual Matchup: Notre Dame (Big East #2**) vs. Florida State (ACC #4)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Florida State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Florida State
  • The Actual Outcome: Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14
* I had North Carolina in this spot replacing Miami (FL) as I assumed the NCAA would rule them ineligible. The fact the ‘Canes committed the bowl equivalent of seppuku didn’t really help me.

** The Champs Sports Bowl can select Notre Dame instead of a Big East team once in the four-year period stretching from 2010-13.

Holiday Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 28th, San Diego, California; Qualcomm Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  Pac-12 #3 vs. Big 12 #5 – Arizona State (#4 Pac-12*) vs.  Baylor (#6 Big 12)
  • Payout: $2,150,000
  • Actual Matchup: California (Pac-12 #4) vs. Texas (Big 12 #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Texas
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Texas
  • The Actual Outcome: Texas 21, California 10

* Normally, this is where I would have put USC, but since they actually are ineligible…

Sun Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; El Paso, Texas; Sun Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #4 vs. ACC #4 –  Utah (#5 Pac-12) vs. Maryland (#5 ACC)
  • Payout: $2,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Georgia Tech (ACC #5) vs. Utah (Pac-12 #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Utah
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Georgia Tech
  • The Actual Outcome: Utah 30, Georgia Tech 27

Music City Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 30th; Nashville, Tennessee; LP Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #6 vs. SEC #7 – Boston College (#7 ACC) vs. Tennessee (#9 SEC)
  • Payout: $1,837,500
  • Actual Matchup: Wake Forest (ACC #7) vs. Mississippi State (SEC #8)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Mississippi State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Mississippi State
  • The Actual Outcome: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 17

Pinstripe Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; New York City, New York; Yankee Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #4 vs. Big 12 #7 – Notre Dame* vs. Texas Tech (#7 Big 12)
  • Payout: $1,800,000
  • Actual Matchup: Rutgers (Big East #4) vs. Iowa State (Big 12 #7)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Rutgers
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Iowa State
  • The Actual Outcome: Rutgers 27, Iowa State 13

* Notre Dame is eligible for any Bowl spot contracted to the Big East conference.  How was I supposed to know the Big East would be so lousy the Irish would get snapped up first? On second thought, don’t answer that…

Belk Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 27th; Charlotte, North Carolina; Bank of America Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #5 vs. Big East #3 – Clemson (#6 ACC) vs. Pittsburgh (#3 Big East)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Louisville (Big East #3) vs. N.C. State (ACC #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: N.C. State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Louisville
  • The Actual Outcome: N.C. State 31, Louisville 24

Liberty Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; Memphis, Tennessee; Memorial Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8 – Houston (#1 C-USA) vs. Kentucky (#10 SEC)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Cincinnati (Big East #4*) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC #9)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Vanderbilt
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Cincinnati
  • The Actual Outcome: Cincinnati 31, Vanderbilt 24

*There’s a whole explanation for why there is a Big East team here instead of C-USA #1. The best one is here. In a nutshell, if there are eight SEC bowl-eligible teams, the Liberty Bowl matches Conference USA versus the Big East, but if there are nine SEC bowl-eligible teams, then it’s SEC versus Big East.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas:
  • Saturday, December 31st; Houston, Texas; Reliant Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #6 vs. Big Ten #6 – Northwestern (#8 Big Ten) vs. Kansas State (#8 Big 12)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Northwestern (Big Ten #8) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Northwestern
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Texas A&M
  • The Actual Outcome: Texas A&M 33, Northwestern 22

Independence Bowl:

  • Monday, December, 26th; Shreveport, Louisiana; Independence Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MWC #3 vs. ACC #7 – Air Force (#3 MWC) vs. North Carolina State (#8 ACC)
  • Payout: $1,150,000
  • Actual Matchup: Missouri (Big 12 #8*) vs. North Carolina (ACC #8)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: North Carolina
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Missouri
  • The Actual Outcome: Missouri 41, North Carolina 24

Military Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 28th; Washington, D.C.; RFK Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  ACC #8/MAC #4 vs. Army/C-USA #6 – Miami (OH) (#4 MAC) vs. Southern Methodist (#6 C-USA)
  • Payout: $862,500
  • Actual Matchup: Air Force (MWC #3)* vs. Toledo (MAC #4) 
  • The Dubsism Predicition: Air Force
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Toledo
  • The Actual Outcome: Toledo 42, Air Force 41

* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Armed Forces Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; Dallas, Texas; Gerald J. Ford Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: C-USA #3/Army vs. MWC #4 or #5 or BYU –Southern Mississippi (#3 C-USA) vs. San Diego State (#4 MWC)
  • Payout: $600,000
  • Actual Matchup: Tulsa (C-USA #3) vs. BYU 
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Tulsa
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: BYU
  • The Actual Outcome: BYU 24, Tulsa 21

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; San Francisco, California; AT&T Park
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #6 vs. Army or WAC #1 or #2 - Washington (#8 Pac-12) vs. Army
  • Payout: $837,500
  • Actual Matchup: UCLA (Pac-12 #7) vs. Illinois* (Big Ten #10)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: UCLA
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Illinois
  • The Actual Outcome: Illinois 20, UCLA 14

*The Big Ten fulfilled all of its contractual obligation, but had an extra team that was bowl-eligible, hence Illinois gets a trip west. Which means if there were ever a game which proves we have too many bowl games, this may be it. After all, don’t you think that teams making it to the post-season would have performed well enough they did not fire their coaches? Well, both these schools made the post-season, and both gassed their coaches.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 27th; Detroit, Michigan; Ford Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MAC  #1 or #2 vs. Big Ten #8  - Northern Illinois (#2 MAC) vs.  Fresno State (#1 WAC)*
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Western Michigan (MAC #2) vs. Purdue (Big Ten #9)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Western Michigan
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Purdue
  • The Actual Outcome: Purdue 37, Western Michigan 32

*Replaces Big Ten spot as the team normally available for this spot will already have been selected by another bowl

Stay tuned for the next update to see who is ahead in the House of Dubsism of Challenge. Hell, tune in to see if there is still a House of Dubsism. Anybody know a good divorce lawyer? Maybe I’ll just send her to the moon





The Dubsism 2011-2012 College Football Bowl Recap: Did My Wife In Fact Know More Than I Do? The First Week’s Results

25 12 2011

EDITOR’S NOTE: The original predictions that were made here back in August were based on an assumption the NCAA will would rule Ohio State, Miami (FL), and Auburn ineligible for post-season competition. These picks are noted, despite the fact that never happened; only Miami (FL) took itself out of bowl consideration. That’s not an excuse for my atrocious prognostication, but it’s what I’ve got.

As previously mentioned, since my wife gets to listen to most of these rants before they ever hit the interwebz, she thinks she actually knows more than me when it comes to college football. Of course, this meant a bowl-picking challenge…one that she is in fact winning at the time.

Bitch.

Here’s the gory details.

The Totals:

  • Dubsism: 6 out of 7 games this week (33 total)
  • Mrs. Dubsism: 7 out of 7 games this week (33 total)

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 22nd; Las Vegas, Nevada; Sam Boyd Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #5 - TCU (#2 MWC) vs. Arizona (#6 Pac-12)
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Actual Matchup: Boise State (MWC #1) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Boise State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Boise State
  • The Actual Outcome: Boise State 56, Arizona State 24

Hawaii Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 24th; Honolulu, Hawaii; Aloha Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: At-Large  vs. WAC #3 or Hawaii - UCLA (#9 Pac-12) vs. Hawaii (#2 WAC) 
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Nevada (WAC#2) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA #1*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Southern Miss
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Southern Miss
  • The Actual Outcome: Southern Miss 24, Nevada 17

Idaho Potato Bowl (Humanitarian Bowl):

  • Saturday, December, 17th; Boise, Idaho; Bronco Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: WAC #1 or #2 vs. MAC #3 - Idaho (#3 WAC) vs. Temple (#3 MAC)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Utah State (WAC #3) vs. Ohio (MAC #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Ohio
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Ohio
  • The Actual Outcome: Ohio 24, Utah State 23

New Mexico Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 17th; Albuquerque, New Mexico; University Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #7 vs. MWC #4 or #5 - Oregon State (#7 Pac-12) vs. Colorado State (#5 MWC)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Wyoming (MWC #4) vs. Temple (MAC #5)*
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Wyoming
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Temple
  • The Actual Outcome: Temple 37, Wyoming 15
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 2otht; St. Petersburg, Florida; Tropicana Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4 - Central Florida (#4 C-USA) vs. Cincinnati (Big East #5)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: Marshall (C-USA#5) vs. Florida International (Sun Belt #3*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Marshall
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediciton: Marshall
  • The Actual Outcome: Marshall 20, Florida International 10
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Poinsettia Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 21st; San Diego, California; Qualcomm Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Navy vs. MWC #2/WAC #4 OR MWC #2 vs. WAC #5 –  Navy vs. Nevada (#4 WAC)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: TCU (MWC #2) vs. Louisiana Tech (WAC #1)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: TCU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: TCU
  • The Actual Outcome: TCU 31, Louisiana Tech 24

New Orleans Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 17th; New Orleans, Louisiana; Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA #5 – Florida International (#1 Sun Belt) vs. East Carolina  (#7 C-USA)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt #1) vs. San Diego State (MWC #5*) 
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette
  • The Actual Outcome: Louisiana-Lafayette 32, San Diego State 30

* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Stay tuned for the next update to see who is ahead in the House of Dubsism of Challenge. Hell, tune in to see if there is still a House of Dubsism.

Bitch.





The Dubsism 2011-2012 College Football Bowl Matchups: I Was So Wrong Now My Wife Thinks She Knows More Than I Do

6 12 2011

EDITOR’S NOTE: The original predictions that were made here back in August were based on an assumption the NCAA will would rule Ohio State, Miami (FL), and Auburn ineligible for post-season competition. These picks are noted, despite the fact that never happened; only Miami (FL) took itself out of bowl consideration. That’s not an excuse for my atrocious prognostication, but it’s what I’ve got.

And for “that guy” who wants to yell at me about how screwed up the bowl system is…Yeah, I get that, but it is also what we’ve got for now. If you wnat to talk about a college playoff, read this first then you can argue with me. And before you yell at me about the numbers associated with each team, remember those are not indicative of  finishes and/or conference standings. Rather they reflect the order in which teams were selected from a conference. Don’t forget bowl committees are allowed to select who they want in their games, within certain contractual commitments.

For example, bowls game outside of the BCS which has a Big East tie-in have a conditional option under which they can select Notre Dame instead. This is why you will see the Irish listed as Big East #2.

The Big East also has an unusual relationship with the Liberty Bowl, which is why Cincinnati is headed for a game traditional slated as an SEC/C-USA matchup.

Lastly, there”s the whole Boise State situation…I understand they might feel like they got jobbed, but they knew the rules going in. It’s not like they couldn’t have eliminated this problem by joining conference. Maybe this is why they’ve announced they are joining the Big East in 2013.

Now, for the fun part. since my wife gets to listen to most of these rants before the ever hit the interwebz, she thinks she actually knows more than me when it comes to college football. Of course, this means a bowl-picking challenge…

Bowl Championship Series:

BCS Championship:

  • Monday, January 9th, New Orleans, Louisiana,  Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2 – Alabama (#1 SEC) vs. Wisconsin (#1 Big Ten)
  • Payout: $18,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: LSU (BCS #1, SEC #1) vs. Alabama (BCS#2, SEC #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: LSU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Alabama

Fiesta Bowl:

  • Thursday, January 5th, Glendale Arizona, University of Phoenix Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 Champion/BCS vs. BCS At-Large – Oklahoma (#1 Big 12) vs. Boise State (#1 MWC)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup:  Oklahoma State (#1 Big 12) vs. Stanford (#2 Pac-12, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oklahoma State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction:  Stanford

Rose Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Pasadena, California; Rose Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  Big Ten Champion/BCS vs. Pac-12 Champion/BCS – Oregon (#1 Pac-12) vs. Nebraska (#2 Big Ten)*
  • Payout : $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Wisconsin (Big Ten #1) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 #1)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oregon
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Wisconsin

* I thought Nebraska would replace the Big Ten Champion (Wisconsin) which would be in BCS Championship. Didn’t happen.

Orange Bowl:

  • Wednesday, January 4th; Miami, Florida; Dolphin Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC Champion vs. Big East Champion/BCS – Florida State (#1 ACC) vs. West Virginia (#1 Big East)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Clemson (ACC #1) vs. West Virginia (Big East #1, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Clemson
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Clemson

Sugar Bowl:

  • Tuesday, January 3rd; New Orleans, Louisiana; Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: SEC Champion BCS vs. Big East Champion/BCS –  LSU (#2 SEC)* vs. Oklahoma State (#2 Big 12)
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Actual Matchupt: Michigan (Big Ten #2*, BCS at-large) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC #2, BCS at-large)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Michigan
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Michigan
*I thought LSU would replace the SEC Champion (Alabama) which would be in BCS Championship. Half-right…Michigan ends up here because of two SEC teams being in the BCS championship game.

Other:

Capital One Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Orlando, Florida; Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2 – South Carolina (#3 SEC) vs. Michigan State (#4 Big Ten)*
  • Payout: $4,600,000
  • Actual Matchup: South Carolina (SEC #3) vs. Nebraska (Big Ten #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction:  South Carolina
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction:  South Carolina

*I thought Michigan State would replace Ohio State since we assumed the NCAA would rule them ineligible. Total whiff. I’d like to thank the NCAA for getting my back on that one.

Cotton Bowl Classic:

  • Friday, January 6th; Dallas, Texas; Cowboys Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3 or #4 – Texas A&M (Big 12 #3) vs. Arkansas (SEC #4)
  • Payout: $3,625,000
  • Actual Matchup: Kansas State (Big 12 #2) vs. Arkansas (SEC #4)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Arkansas
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Kansas State

Insight Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; Tempe, Arizona; Sun Devil Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5 – Missouri (#4 Big 12) vs. Iowa (#6 Big Ten)
  • Payout: $3,350,000
  • Actual Matchup: Oklahoma (Big 12 #4) vs. Iowa (Big Ten #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Oklahoma
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Iowa

Chick-Fil-A Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; Atlanta, Georgia; Georgia Dome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #2 vs. SEC #5 – Virginia Tech (ACC #2) vs. Georgia (SEC #6)*
  • Payout: $3,967,500 ACC; $2,932,500 SEC
  • Actual Matchup: Virginia (ACC #3) vs. Auburn (SEC #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Auburn
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Auburn

* Again, I had Georgia here as I thought Auburn would be ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Fat chance.

Outback Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Tampa, Florida; Raymond James Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big Ten #3  vs. SEC #3 , #4, or #5  - Penn State (#5 Big Ten) vs. Mississippi State (#6 SEC) 
  • Payout $3,500,000
  • Actual Matchup:  Michigan State (Big Ten #4) vs. Georgia (SEC #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Michigan State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Michigan State

Alamo Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 29th; San Antonio, Texas, Alamodome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #2 vs. Big 12 #3 – Stanford (#2 Pac-12) vs. Texas (#5 Big 12)
  • Payout: $3,175,000
  • Actual Matchup: Washington (Pac-12 #3) vs. Baylor (Big 12 #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Baylor
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Baylor

Gator Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Jacksonville, Florida; Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 10 #4 or #5 vs. SEC #6 – Michigan (#7 Big Ten) vs. Florida (#8 SEC)
  • Payout: $2,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Ohio State (Big Ten #6) vs. Florida (SEC #7)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Ohio State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Florida

Champs Sports Bowl:

  • Friday, December 29th, Orlando, Florida; Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #2 vs. ACC #3 – South Florida (#2 Big East) vs. North Carolina (#4 ACC)*
  • Payout: $2,325,000
  • Actual Matchup: Notre Dame (Big East #2**) vs. Florida State (ACC #4)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Florida State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Florida State
* I had North Carolina in this spot replacing Miami (FL) as I assumed the NCAA would rule them ineligible. The fact the ‘Canes committed the bowl equivalent of seppuku didn’t really help me.

** The Champs Sports Bowl can select Notre Dame instead of a Big East team once in the four-year period stretching from 2010-13.

Holiday Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 28th, San Diego, California; Qualcomm Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  Pac-12 #3 vs. Big 12 #5 – Arizona State (#4 Pac-12*) vs.  Baylor (#6 Big 12)
  • Payout: $2,150,000
  • Actual Matchup: California (Pac-12 #4) vs. Texas (Big 12 #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Texas
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Texas

* Normally, this is where I would have put USC, but since they actually are ineligible…

Sun Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; El Paso, Texas; Sun Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #4 vs. ACC #4 –  Utah (#5 Pac-12) vs. Maryland (#5 ACC)
  • Payout: $2,000,000
  • Actual Matchup: Georgia Tech (ACC #5) vs. Utah (Pac-12 #5)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Utah
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Georgia Tech

Music City Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 30th; Nashville, Tennessee; LP Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #6 vs. SEC #7 – Boston College (#7 ACC) vs. Tennessee (#9 SEC)
  • Payout: $1,837,500
  • Actual Matchup: Wake Forest (ACC #7) vs. Mississippi State (SEC #8)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Mississippi State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Mississippi State

Pinstripe Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; New York City, New York; Yankee Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #4 vs. Big 12 #7 – Notre Dame* vs. Texas Tech (#7 Big 12)
  • Payout: $1,800,000
  • Actual Matchup: Rutgers (Big East #4) vs. Iowa State (Big 12 #7)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Rutgers
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Iowa State

* Notre Dame is eligible for any Bowl spot contracted to the Big East conference.  How was I supposed to know the Big East would be so lousy the Irish would get snapped up first? On second thought, don’t answer that…

Belk Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 27th; Charlotte, North Carolina; Bank of America Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: ACC #5 vs. Big East #3 – Clemson (#6 ACC) vs. Pittsburgh (#3 Big East)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Louisville (Big East #3) vs. N.C. State (ACC #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: N.C. State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Louisville

Liberty Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; Memphis, Tennessee; Memorial Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8 – Houston (#1 C-USA) vs. Kentucky (#10 SEC)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Cincinnati (Big East #4*) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC #9)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Vanderbilt
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Cincinnati

*There’s a whole explanation for why there is a Big East team here instead of C-USA #1. The best one is here. In a nutshell, if there are eight SEC bowl-eligible teams, the Liberty Bowl matches Conference USA versus the Big East, but if there are nine SEC bowl-eligible teams, then it’s SEC versus Big East.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas:
  • Saturday, December 31st; Houston, Texas; Reliant Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big 12 #6 vs. Big Ten #6 – Northwestern (#8 Big Ten) vs. Kansas State (#8 Big 12)
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Actual Matchup: Northwestern (Big Ten #8) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Northwestern
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Texas A&M

Independence Bowl:

  • Monday, December, 26th; Shreveport, Louisiana; Independence Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MWC #3 vs. ACC #7 – Air Force (#3 MWC) vs. North Carolina State (#8 ACC)
  • Payout: $1,150,000
  • Actual Matchup: Missouri (Big 12 #8*) vs. North Carolina (ACC #8)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: North Carolina
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Missouri
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

TicketCity Bowl:

  • Monday, January 2nd; Dallas, Texas, Cotton Bowl
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big Ten #7 vs. C-USA #2 – Illinois (#9 Big Ten) vs. Tulsa (#2 C-USA)
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Actual Matchup: Penn State (Big Ten #7) vs. Houston (C-USA #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Penn State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Penn State

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl:

  • Thursday, December 22nd; Las Vegas, Nevada; Sam Boyd Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #5 – TCU (#2 MWC) vs. Arizona (#6 Pac-12)
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Actual Matchup: Boise State (MWC #1) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 #6)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Boise State
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Boise State

BBVA Compass Bowl:

  • Saturday, January 7th; Birmingham, Alabama; Legion Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #5 vs. SEC #8 – Connecticut (#4 Big East) vs. Alabama – Birmingham (C-USA #5*)
  • Payout: $900,000 SEC; $600,000 Big East
  • Actual Matchup: Pittsburgh (Big East #5) vs. SMU (C-USA #4*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: SMU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: SMU
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Military Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 28th; Washington, D.C.; RFK Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup:  ACC #8/MAC #4 vs. Army/C-USA #6 – Miami (OH) (#4 MAC) vs. Southern Methodist (#6 C-USA)
  • Payout: $862,500
  • Actual Matchup: Air Force (MWC #3)* vs. Toledo (MAC #4) 
  • The Dubsism Predicition: Air Force
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Toledo
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Armed Forces Bowl:

  • Friday, December 30th; Dallas, Texas; Gerald J. Ford Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: C-USA #3/Army vs. MWC #4 or #5 or BYU – Southern Mississippi (#3 C-USA) vs. San Diego State (#4 MWC)
  • Payout: $600,000
  • Actual Matchup: Tulsa (C-USA #3) vs. BYU 
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Tulsa
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: BYU

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 31st; San Francisco, California; AT&T Park
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #6 vs. Army or WAC #1 or #2 - Washington (#8 Pac-12) vs. Army
  • Payout: $837,500
  • Actual Matchup: UCLA (Pac-12 #7) vs. Illinois* (Big Ten #10)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: UCLA
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Illinois

*The Big Ten fulfilled all of its contractual obligation, but had an extra team that was bowl-eligible, hence Illinois gets a trip west. Which means if there were ever a game which proves we have too many bowl games, this may be it. After all, don’t you think that teams making it to the post-season would have performed well enough they did not fire their coaches? Well, both these schools made the post-season, and both gassed their coaches.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 27th; Detroit, Michigan; Ford Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MAC  #1 or #2 vs. Big Ten #8  - Northern Illinois (#2 MAC) vs.  Fresno State (#1 WAC)*
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Western Michigan (MAC #2) vs. Purdue (Big Ten #9)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Western Michigan
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Purdue

*Replaces Big Ten spot as the team normally available for this spot will already have been selected by another bowl

GoDaddy.com Bowl

  • Sunday, January 8th; Mobile, Alabama; Ladd Peebles Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: MAC #1 0r #2 vs. Sun Belt #2 – Toledo  (#1 MAC) vs. Troy (#2 Sun Belt)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Northern Illinois (MAC #1) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt #2)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Northern Illinois
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Northern Illinois

Hawaii Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 24th; Honolulu, Hawaii; Aloha Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: At-Large  vs. WAC #3 or Hawaii – UCLA (#9 Pac-12) vs. Hawaii (#2 WAC) 
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Nevada (WAC#2) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA #1*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Southern Miss
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Southern Miss

Idaho Potato Bowl (Humanitarian Bowl):

  • Saturday, December, 17th; Boise, Idaho; Bronco Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: WAC #1 or #2 vs. MAC #3 – Idaho (#3 WAC) vs. Temple (#3 MAC)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Utah State (WAC #3) vs. Ohio (MAC #3)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Ohio
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Ohio

New Mexico Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 17th; Albuquerque, New Mexico; University Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Pac-12 #7 vs. MWC #4 or #5 – Oregon State (#7 Pac-12) vs. Colorado State (#5 MWC)
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Actual Matchup: Wyoming (MWC #4) vs. Temple (MAC #5)*
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Wyoming
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Temple
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl:

  • Tuesday, December 2otht; St. Petersburg, Florida; Tropicana Field
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4 – Central Florida (#4 C-USA) vs. Cincinnati (Big East #5)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: Marshall (C-USA#5) vs. Florida International (Sun Belt #3*)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Marshall
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediciton: Marshall
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations.

Poinsettia Bowl:

  • Wednesday, December 21st; San Diego, California; Qualcomm Stadium
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Navy vs. MWC #2/WAC #4 OR MWC #2 vs. WAC #5 –  Navy vs. Nevada (#4 WAC)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: TCU (MWC #2) vs. Louisiana Tech (WAC #1)
  • The Dubsism Prediction: TCU
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: TCU

New Orleans Bowl:

  • Saturday, December 17th; New Orleans, Louisiana; Superdome
  • Traditional/Contractual Matchup: Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA #5 – Florida International (#1 Sun Belt) vs. East Carolina  (#7 C-USA)
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Actual Matchup: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt #1) vs. San Diego State (MWC #5*) 
  • The Dubsism Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette
  • The Mrs. Dubsism Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette
* Replacement team for a conference that does not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its obligations. 




The Dubsism Baseball Post-Season Preview: A Look Back at Yesterday and A Look Ahead To October

29 09 2011

I’m just going to come right out and say it…if you didn’t find last night’s baseball drama to be one of the most exciting things you’ve seen since discount warehouse liquor stores, you either don’t like baseball or you have no pulse.

I’m such an old codger that I can remember first-hand the days of Charlie O. Finley, the chain-link outfield fence at Candlestick Park, and Bucky F–king Dent, and I would be lying if I didn’t say that last night was the single-most exciting four hours of baseball I’ve ever personally witnessed.  Being that old geezer, you have to understand this includes Game 6 of the ’75 World Series, Reggie Jackson hitting three homers on three swings against the Dodgers, the ’78 Red Sox-Yankees playoff (hence Bucky F–king Dent), Game 6 of the ’86 World Series, the 1987 World Series (preceded by the August weekend in Milwaukee in which Kirby Puckett supplanted Rod Carew as  my lord and personal savior), Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, and all things Bartman-esque.

But none of those things – not a single damn one of them – involved four games occurring simultaneously which held the structure of the post-season in the balance. The Cards took their game out of the mix early by drubbing the Astros, and it seemed the Yankees had done the same on the grand slam by Mark Teixiera. When Dustin Pedroia put the Red Sox in front of the Orioles with his homer, I don’t think anybody in America saw what was coming in the next few hours.

Except me.

If you are a follow of @Dubsism on Twitter, you saw the prophecy in action.

9:30 P.M. ET

Okay, so I missed on the playoff thing, but after Jon Lester somehow managed to get out of the 6th inning without giving away the ball game despite his complete inability to throw a strike, all you had to do was look into the Sawwwx dugout to see they knew they had just used up their miracle.

Again, the Orioles just won’t go away, and here comes Jonathan “I can blow that save, Terry” Papelbon.  But just moments before Papelbon has his soon-to-be-infamous meltdown, Dan Johnson has his moment in Tampa.

That’s right, the hero of the moment is a guy who was hitting south of .130 and hadn’t had a major league hit since April. Toss in the fact that he looked completely overmatched on pitches prior to that home run, and one couldn’t help but be reminded of Bernie Carbo.

Next comes the Papelbon catastrophe (raise your hand if you didn’t see it coming…by now it was painfully apparent). This left the only hope for the Sawwwx in a Rays extra-inning loss.

Then it happened.

12:00 A.M. ET

Evan Longoria stroked the Red Sox into the off-season, all while propelling us into what promises to be an incredible post-season. But it also will push us into a discussion about just what happened.

While the Braves collapse is just as embarrassing as that of Boston’s, it simply is more fun to rub some salt in the collective wounds of the Sawwwx nation. See, as an Angels fan, I’ve hated the Red Sox ever since the Dave Henderson homer in the ’86 ALCS.

You should understand that for the rest of us, those of us not fans of the Yankees or Red Yankees, those of us whose teams have spent a decade playing the Washington Generals to east-of-the-Hudson, bloated-payroll Globetrotters…when either team fails, it is the same sort of soul-filling pablum that makes people watch soap operas. We all love to watch the rich and famous stumble.

And after all that, here we are; another October full of post-season baseball. Let’s be honest, most of the crap I said about these teams six months ago was wrong, so why not go for month number seven proving I have no idea what I’m talking about.

Indeed, how many of those things turned out true? Remember when I said the Yankees and the Red Sox were mirror images of each other, and it would be a race between the two to see which collapsed first? Well, the Red Sox waited until September before they folded faster than Superman on laundry day, allowing themselves to get run down by a Rays team that could be this years answer to the San Francisco Giants.

But enough of looking back…let’s look ahead to the post-season. Here are your eight participants and their odds of coming home with a title.

1) Philadelphia Phillies – (Pre-season Rank #1, 102-60, NL East Champs) – Odds of Winning World Series: 2.5-1

This team is all about the pitching staff, with just enough offense to make it work. It worked to the tune of 100+ wins, and this is the proverbial “team to beat” until somebody does just that. The biggest concern is that in the National League, the team to finish with the best record hasn’t won the World Series since the 1986 Mets, and since the Phillies obviously won’t have the luxury of facing the Red Sawwwx…

2) New York Yankees (Pre-season Rank #4, 97-65, AL East Champs) – Odds of Winning World Series: 4-1

The Yankees are the photo-negative of the Phillies; they sport a monstrous line-up and a pitching staff made up of CC Sa-fat-tia and a lot of “not much else.”

Now, it’s time for some equal-opportunity hating: Are you now, or have you ever been a Yankees fan? Are you under the age of 45? Have you ever said “The Yankees sucked when I was a kid, so I’m not of one these new Yankee fans that came along when we started winning again”? If you answered “Yes” to these questions, you are pretentious douche-nozzle and you would be doing the world a favor if you stuck a shotgun in your mouth.

There’s soooooooooo many reasons to hate the Yankees. First, there’s the aforementioned loyalty-less assloafs who think just because the Yankees sucked in the 80′s means they aren’t some dickhead who needs to be on the winning side.  But least there is one less reason to hate them, since that piece of deep-fried monkey nuts known as George Steinbrenner is dead. At least he has a burn-in-hell worthy legacy, like sodomizing New York City out of a billion dollars to build a replica of a 90-year old mausoleum of decency, then filling it with insufferable dickweeds who are now actually proud of their Ruthian douche-baggery.

Oh, and I haven’t mentioned this yet, but you have no idea how much it pissed me off that after Steinbrenner assumed room temperature that I kept being told “You didn’t have to like him, but you had to respect him.”  Eat me. The same people who said this are the same people responsible for the impending death of America.  George Steinbrenner was a criminal who deserves the same respect a dog pays to a fire hydrant.

3) Tampa Bay Rays (Pre-season Rank #18, 91-71, AL Wild Card) – Odds of Winning World Series: 5.5-1

This is clearly a reactionary pick. Last year I picked the Giants as the least likely team to win, and I’m not making that mistake again. This team plays just like last years champions. They get big hits when they need them, and they get enough pitching to make those hits stand up. Not to mention, if you believe in momentum AT ALL, you can’t bet against this club.

4) Milwaukee Brewers (Pre-season Rank #12, 96-66, NL Central Champs) – Odds of Winning World Series: 7-1

This is the first appearance the Brew Crew has made in the post-season  since Harvey’s Wallbangers in 1982. The Brewers finished with a 57-24 record at home, which was both best in the major leagues and a franchise record.  Since they will host the Diamondbacks in the first round, that should bode well for the boys from Beer City.

5) Arizona Diamondbacks (Pre-Season Rank #11, 94-67, NL West Champs) – Odds of Winning World Series: 8-1

Don’t look now, but this is a franchise that wins with pitching. They won the 2001 World Series with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, and Arizona moundsmen have earned five Cy Young Awards in 13 seasons.  This year, the D-backs sport right-handers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, as well as left-hander Joe Saunders who have all racked up 200 innings.

With all those innings-eaters at the top of the rotation, the D-Backs always more often than not have a fresh bullpen, which means manager Kirk Gibson often can get desirable individual late-game matchups. This also means Arizona tends not to get far behind in ball games, which is part of the reason for the team’s big-league-high 48 comeback victories.

Oh, and as a life-long Dodger-hater, I’m obliged to bring up the quintessential Kirk Gibson post-season moment…I may need a bucket…

6) St. Louis Cardinals (Pre-Season Rank #16, 90-72, NL Wild Card) – Odds of Winning World Series: 9-1

Only the Yankees have won more World Series titles than the Cardinals, and both have won in the last five years. This means the Cardinals are a team with plenty of post-season experience.

They also have that momentum factor I mentioned with the Rays. The Cardinals got hot in September after being 10 1/2 games behind the Braves on Aug. 25.   This means they won 23 of their last 32 games.

7) Texas Rangers (Pre-Season Rank #13, 95-66, AL West Champs) – Odds of Winning World Series: 12-1

Texas hit .320 in September, the highest batting average after September 1st, which is the best since this statistic has been kept beginning in 1946. We all know this team can hit, and even though the Ranger pitching staff has the fifth best ERA in the American League, I’m not sure a Cliff Lee-less rotation scares anybody.

8 ) Detroit Tigers (Pre-Season Rank #14, 91-71, AL Central Champs- Odds of Winning World Series: 14-1

Like the Brewers, the Tigers are another team showing up in October after a long absence. The last time the Motor City Kitties graced October with their was 1987. Of all the great moments in my own personal baseball history I listed earlier, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Game 4 of the ALCS, when Tiger third baseman Darrell Evans became the goat to end all goats.

As far as this year’s Tigers are concerned, you can’t argue that Justin Verlander is the most dominating pitcher in the league, and Miguel Cabrera is the most potent offensive weapon, but the Tigers have some thump in the lineup beyond that. They have a supporting cast to go along with Verlander. The trouble is I simply don’t think they can beat the Yankees.





The Dubsism 2011 Pre-Season NFL Power Rankings

6 09 2011

As we find ourselves on the verge of another NFL season, it is time for the degenerate gambler in me to preview the carnage. Let’s face it, the NFL is comprised of  three classes: Really Good, Mediocre, and Lousy.  This means NFL predictions are pretty easy to get reasonably correct. For example, the online sports book experts find it easy to predict the AFC East standings each year. As long as quarterback Tom Brady is playing for head coach Bill Belichick in New England, that will be your division favorite. Another point that should be obvious is that if you are reading this article and expecting anything more clever than a sports book expert, maybe you shouldn’t be gambling in the first place.

Having said that, here’s how we see these teams come January (playoff teams noted in green).

Rankings by Division

AFC East

The Patriots looked invincible last season until the New York Jets found their Achilles’ heel. Once you take away the Patriots running game, their offense suddenly can’t create plays. However, the Pats’ seem to have addressed that by solidifying the offensive line.  Otherwise, the Patriots needed to make two major changes;  they needed help in the defensive secondary, and they needed size in the running game. Danny Woodhead is a great story, but he’s a munchkin, and teams had him figured out by the playoffs. Brandon Meriwether is a fraud, and has been for a while. This is why the Patriots drafted defensive back Ras-I Dowling and running back Shane Vereen. When you stop to consider the Patriots’ past success at player scouting and development (don’t make me break out the Tom Brady cliché yet again), it is safe to assume that the Patriots solved their problems.

Q: Who knew this looked a future Hall-of-Famer? A: Bill Belichick.

But don’t sleep on the Jets.  The Jets get the second spot in the AFC East by default; the Bills and Dolphins are both in that “Lousy” category. The Jets season hinges on two things: the defense has to live up to expectations by being the dominant unit it should be, and Mark Sanchez has to not suck. Frankly, it is time for Sanchez to prove he is worthy of the star status he has been accorded. If he finally shows us he is the “San-chise,” the sky is the limit for the Jets. If not, expect another playoff loss.

  1. New England Patriots
  2. New York Jets
  3. Miami Dolphins
  4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North

The Ravens defense used to be radioactive to offenses, but like all radioactive elements, eventually they pass their half-life and the decay becomes noticeable. This may not be the year that happens, but it is getting more likely with time. If the Ravens are going to make a move and snatch this division from the Steelers, that defense needs to stay healthy and give us one more season of nuclear-powered destruction. Anything short of that, and we may very well be seeing those damn Terrible Towels deep into the playoffs.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. Baltimore Ravens
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South

This division goes to the Texans by default. Tennessee has a new head coach, and I have no faith that Matt Hasselbeck is the cure to all that ailed the Titans. Jacksonville is just plain bad, and I can’t sell on the Colts fast enough. If you saw Indianapolis in the pre-season, you saw the lack of Peyton Manning is only one problem this team has. The offensive line couldn’t block a hat, the defense acts more like the express lane at the toll-booth, and head coach Jim Caldwell couldn’t find his balls with both hands. However, in all fairness, it’s not like the Texans have ever shown they know where their balls are either; they’ve never once showed they have what it takes to win.

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Tennessee Titans
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West

Here’s another default situation that just drives me nuts. Every year, I get sucked in by the Chargers, only to watch them underperform. I honestly wish I could say with confidence San Diego can’t win this division, but who else can? The Raiders didn’t lose a division game last year, but they also have a new head coach, question marks all over the roster, and the usual Raider drama. The Chiefs showed what they were in that seal-clubbing they took at the hands of the Ravens in the playoff last season, and they didn’t get better since then. Do I even need to mention the Denver Tebows?

  1. San Diego Chargers
  2. Oakland Raiders
  3. Kansas City Chiefs
  4. Denver Broncos

NFC East

We could call this division the NFC Over-Rated. I swear to god, the next person who refers to the Eagles as “dream team” will get kicked in the neck (I say this as a lifelong Eagles fan). They have some serious issues on the offensive line, and I will give you even money Michael Vick proves to be a bust on that big contract he just got. Don’t forget he got the crap beaten out of him last season and lost five games due to injury, plus he got progressively worse as the season went on. Not to mention he is age-wise already north of 30, and I don’t know of too many athletes that aged like wine; running quarterbacks age like milk.

Then there’s the Cowboys. To buy this team, I need to do two things that make me nervous. First, I have to buy Tony Romo as a quarterback who can win a game that means something; that’s compounded by the fact he plays behind an offensive line that at times can look like five matadors in silver and blue. Secondly, I need to see head coach Jason Garrett take this team out of the gate as “the man;” last year I suspect he got a bump in performance out of that team just for not being fat Bob Newhart Wade Phillips.

As far as the Giants are concerned…well, let’s just say the difference between Tony Romo and Eli Manning is pure, uncut luck. Without one David Tyree catch against his helmet as the best possible time, we are likely dogging the drunken, non-misshapen-headed Manning as badly as we dog Romo now. Besides, that one catch lengthens the time before I will see Tom Coughlin standing by a freeway on-ramp holding a sign which says “will be an asshole for food.”

One of these quarterbacks is probably not a homosexual. The other is Eli Manning.

The only thing for sure about this division is that the Redskins will be a vortex of inter-galactic suckittude; the kind that generates such a gravitational pull it threatens to collapse under its own mass.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles
  2. New York Giants
  3. Dallas Cowboys
  4. Washington Redskins

NFC North

The Packers return better as defending champs not because they added tons of talent in the off-season; rather because they are entering with all the talent they lost due to injury. Let’s face it, the 2010 Packers were so beat up last year they looked like the battered women’s shelter by Mike Tyson’s house. If they can learn to slip that “I’m off my Lithium again” left-hook the NFL season can throw, the Packers will prove to be more than a Buster Douglas-type one-trick pony.

Meanwhile, three hours to the south lies the enigma known as the Chicago Bears. How can a team have so many ex-head coaches on its staff (Mike Martz, Rod Marinelli, and Mike Tice) and not know that a key to a successful offense is not letting the other team turn their quarterback into lawn mulch? It is easy to beat on Jay Cutler, but’s let’s be fair, he could sue his offensive line for non-support. If there’s a guy in Chicago who should be getting called out, it’ s Lovie Smith. He’s done the least with the most talent of nearly any coach in this league, and yet his job never seems to be in danger. One can make an argument that a coach who didn’t have his head up his ass could have won two Super Bowls with the Bears during the Lovie regime, but nobody ever seems to mention that…

If Wal-Mart made a cheap, Guatemalan-made version of the New York Jets, it might just be the Detroit Lions. Let’s look at the common components:

  • A team that will likely have a bone-shattering defense
  • A team designed around a “ball-control” offense
  • A team with a young quarterback who needs to prove he’s the real deal
This will be the first year of the post-Favre debacle in Minnesota; an era that will be marked by 6-win seasons and a continued failure to understand the value of the quarterback position and the talent required to make a winner.
  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Chicago Bears
  3. Detroit Lions
  4. Minnesota Vikings

NFC South

The NFL Lockout really was a cover story so Drew Brees could hang out with Seal Team 6 and waste some bad guys.

The Saints may very well be the most complete offense in the NFC. Drew Brees and Sean Payton make the brainiest quarterback-coach combination since Joe Montana and Bill Walsh. Not only did the running game get better simply by the subtraction of Reggie StolenHeisman-KardashianReject,  the addition of running back Mark Ingram and “I’m gonna smash you in the mouth” center Olin Kreutz, makes for a physical ground game to go with the Brees and Company Flying Circus.

Every since draft day, we’ve known the Falcons think they are “that one piece away,” and they think that piece is wide receiver Julio Jones. Honestly, I would be more concerned about the impending breakdown of running back Michael Turner; in the past few seasons he’s touched more balls than the lady who does the lottery drawings.

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. Carolina Panthers

NFC West

Welcome to the NFC 7-9 Division, or as I like to call it, the “Somebody’s got to win it” Division. Honestly, I loved all the belly aching that went on about how a team with a losing record shouldn’t be in the playoffs despite the fact the SeaHacks won under the architecture provided, and the people who bitched the loudest about the NFL playoff system are the same ones who beat on college football for not having a playoff. Plus, it was these very same people who bitched about my solution for the college playoff issue who stole the line form the “Poll and Bowl” crowd about this being about the “best teams, not just those who win a bad division.”

That was until the SeaHacks knocked out the Saints. Then it all stopped. It really doesn’t matter, because one of these teams will be in the playoffs whether you like it or not.

  1. St. Louis Rams
  2. Arizona Cardinals
  3. San Francisco 49ers
  4. Seattle Seahawks

Overall Rankings

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Green Bay Packers
  3. Philadelphia Eagles
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. New York Jets
  6. New Orleans Saints
  7. San Diego Chargers
  8. Atlanta Falcons
  9. Baltimore Ravens
  10. New York Giants
  11. Houston Texans
  12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  13. Dallas Cowboys
  14. Chicago Bears
  15. Miami Dolphins
  16. St. Louis Rams
  17. Tennessee Titans
  18. Detroit Lions
  19. Indianapolis Colts
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Oakland Raiders
  22. Cleveland Browns
  23. Kansas City Chiefs
  24. Jacksonville Jaguars
  25. Seattle Seahawks
  26. Minnesota Vikings
  27. San Francisco 49′ers
  28. Buffalo Bills
  29. Denver Broncos
  30. Cincinnati Bengals
  31. Washington Redskins
  32. Carolina Panthers




The Dubsism Baseball Power Rankings: The Labor Day Edition – The Contenders vs. The Pretenders Edition

5 09 2011

In my last baseball rankings, I said the All-Star break to me has always represented the “far turn” in the horse race that is the Major League Baseball season. This means Labor Day marks the beginning of the home stretch; everybody has less than thirty games to play; everybody’s made their non-waiver and waiver trade deadlines, and everybody is bring up the September “cups of coffee.”

But this is also the time of year where we discover who the “contenders” are; that select group at the front of the pack who may still be playing baseball a month from now. It’s that time we can start looking at how those teams will fare in that wonderful month of October.  Not to mention, this another great opportunity to see how wrong we really were.

1) Philadelphia Phillies – Previous Rank #1  ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: The pitching rotation – who else has three proven aces on their staff, with a chaser of Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton? Nobody.  Not to mention, this team won 97 games last year despite being crippled by injuries, and whoever wasn’t hurt kinda sucked.

Downside: The loss of Jayson Werth means if nobody emerges as protection for Ryan Howard, he won’t see 20 pitches to hit all year. It also means this line-up is waaaaay left-handed, and the Chase Utley injury doesn’t help. Oh, by the way, the bullpen sucks; and that was before the injury to Brad Lidge.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:  Contender

I said it before, and I will say it again. Take all the stuff we said in April and put it in the “So What?” file. This team is the front-runner until somebody beats them.

2) New York Yankees – Previous Rank #4 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They are a mirror image of the Red Sox; that offense will score runs in droves.

Downside: They will need to score, because their pitching staff is going to give it up faster than a cheerleader on prom night. CC Sabathia is a legitimate ace, but it gets dicey quickly after that. Is AJ Burnett finished? Is Phil Hughes for real? Do Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia know it isn’t 2003 anymore?

And Coming Into the Homestretch:  Contender

The story has been the same all season – The pitching hasn’t been horrible, but there’s a major warning sign in the fact that Ivan Nova is the next best pitcher behind CC Sa-Fat-thia. Offensively, this team is far too dependent on the long-ball, which makes them incredibly susceptible to an injury or slump-related fold.

3)  Boston Red Sox – Previous Rank #2 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They are going to score runs by the buttload.  Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia setting the table  in front of a 3-4-5  Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis means there’s is going to be a lot of crooked numbers on the Fenway scoreboard.

Downside: I don’t give a damn what anybody says, I don’t buy this pitching staff.  Jon Lester is over-rated in my book, although he is still pretty solid. The rest of the starters are coin-flips; is the book out on John Lackey? It sure looks like AL hitters have figured him out.  For being some sort  of “wunderkind,” Clay Buchholz walks a lot of guys. Like it or not, this is as good as it gets, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are non-factors. The addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen means, like me, the Red Sox have no faith in Jonathan Papelbon.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Contender, but could be the first to fold

Again, they are a mirror-image of the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees’ money-sucking hole in the pitching staff is AJ Burnett, in Boston its John Lackey. The difference is in the free-agent outfielder who was supposed to spark-plug the offense. In New York, that guy is a potential MVP candidate (Granderson), and in Boston it’s Carl “Mediocre-at-MVP-Money” Crawford.

4) Atlanta Braves – Previous Rank  #3 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: While they are a collection of “what-ifs” built around a solid core of just enough hitting and just enough pitching, too many of those “what-ifs” look pretty likely.

Downside: How long is this Chipper Jones thing going to last? My fear is that the “resurgence” we saw this spring will fade, and far too many at-bats will be tossed into a hole hoping the dream returns.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Contender, but could be great or could be like warm, flat beer

With the addition of Michael Bourn, and the awakening of Dan Uggla, the Braves are who can’t be taken lightly in a seven-game series.

5) Milwaukee Brewers – Previous Rank #13 ↑8

What We Said Originally:

Upside: There’s a love fest in Milwaukee. Everybody loves Zack Greinke in the NL.  Everybody loves the Shaun Marcum acquisition. Everybody loves Prince Fielder in a contract year.

Downside: All this love is still in Milwaukee. The Brewer line-up is thinner than light beer, and that will only get worse when Fielder gets traded.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

I don’t care about this latest hot streak, I still don’t buy this team. Granted, the lineup is scary good, but I still look at the teams they are dominating and I’m not impressed. Its’ one thing to beat up on the Astros, Cubs, Pirates, Mets, and Dodgers; I want to see this team beat somebody that doesn’t suck.

6) Texas Rangers – Previous Rank #8 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  They can still be competitive in the AL West, even with the loss of Vlad Guerrero’s bat and the inevitable return to earth of C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis.

Downside: It won’t take much to remain competitive in the AL West, which means it more than likely looks to be another long summer in Arlington.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Contender, if the bats get hot at the right time

It’s still the same. You can go a long way in a division which is a race to 90 wins with 2 guys on a pace to hit ~ 30 home runs, and 4 to drive in ~ 90 runs.

7)  Tampa Bay Rays – Previous Rank #6 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: The off-season is over, so it can’t get any worse…the Rays have had the worst off-season in recent memory, having lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour. At least they can still pitch.

Downside:  After Evan Longoria, the line-up gets pretty scary. If Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez have nothing left, this could be a tough year.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Stanley Kowalski – They could have been a contender, but…

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…did you ever notice that every team Manny Ramirez left improved? And who saw the resurgence of Casey Kotchmann coming?

8 )  Los Angeles Angels – Previous Rank #7 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team has ownership that isn’t afraid to make a move, and you can look for the Angels to be lurking in the weeds at the trade deadline. Everybody saw this team roll over and die after losing Kendrys Morales; the acquisition of Dan Haren was a move for the future, so don’t be surprised when the Angels make another big mid-season move.

Downside: The whole season may be riding on one move; the Vernon Wells acquisition. It could be a stroke of genius, or it could become a money-sucking vortex in the middle of the Angel lineup.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

This team has a complete power outage, with only rookie Mark Trumbo looking to top 30 HR/90 RBI.  The strength of this team is in the top three in the starting rotation – Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.

9) St. Louis Cardinals – Previous Rank #10 ↑8

What We Said Originally:

Upside: At least they still have Albert Pujols. If Lance Berkman has anything left in the tank, if Colby Rasmus can become an All-Star, and if Jake Westbrook can pitch as well as he did in the 2nd half of last year, the Cards can keep the Reds honest in the NL Central.

Downside: This might be the end for the LaRussa era in St. Louis. Even if Pujols stays with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright’s future is now a question mark, Chris Carpenter’s dominating ways are nearing an end, Jamie Garcia can’t be counted on to be as good as he was last year, and it wasn’t that long ago Colby Rasmus was making trade demands.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Possible Contender – See Texas Rangers

The pitching staff is mediocre, but the combination of Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, and the rejuvenated Lance Berkman drives this team. Had they been able to add a starting pitcher, I’m not sure we would be talking about the Brewers right now.

10) Arizona Diamondbacks – Previous Rank #12 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Kevin Towers has taken over as GM, so the rebuilding can begin.

Downside: It’s going to get worse before it gets better in Arizona. This was a team on the rise just a few years ago, now there will be a long rebuilding process. It starts with trading Justin Upton.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:  Contender – This  team can hit, and if the pitching is just good enough, who knows…

Don’ t look now, but this team has 10 guys with slugging percentages of .400 or better, which is the major reason they are six games ahead of the defending World Champions.

11) Detroit Tigers – Previous Rank #12 ↑1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have a “good enough” rotation, and they added some punch to an offense which already features the best offensive weapon in the AL.

Downside: Does the Miguel Cabrera situation become a distraction? If so, and the key to the Tiger offense goes in the tank, Detroit flounders faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald. If not, they could steal this division out from under the Twins and White Sox.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender – Just not enough bullets in the gun

This team is all about Justin Verlander, Jose Valverde and just enough other pitching to support a line-up which has 4 players batting in the .300 area, and 4 on a pace to drive in 80 RBIs.

12)  San Francisco Giants – Previous Rank #4 ↓8

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Hey Philadelphia, you can phorget about Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee; the best 1-2 big game pitcher punch is in San Francisco in the form of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  Last October showed that.  The same rotation that led them to the title is still intact, and if Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner continue to develop, this entire staff if healthy could be better than the Phillies top-to-bottom.

Downside: We still don’t know if they can hit.  Miguel Tejada was the only upgrade made on the offensive end, and Buster Posey is the real deal, so it will all come down to Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and/or Cody Ross, and the newly-svelte Pablo Sandoval.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

Well, you can phorget about what I said in April. I’ve watched Lincecum start to believe that anytime he gives up more than two runs, he’s going to lose.  He’s usually right.  This team’s offensive leader in the triple crown categories is Carlos Beltran, and most of that production came when he was wearing a Mets’ uniform.

13) Cleveland Indians -Previous Rank #12 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have one good hitter in Shin-soo Choo, one good pitcher in Fausto Carmona, and one excellent catcher in Carlos Santana, and rumors keep swirling the Tribe has some interesting youngsters down on the farm.

Downside: The heyday for this team was fifteen years ago, and unless you can find a way to add Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, and Jake Taylor to the roster, there will be more than one long summer in Cleveland’s near future.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

Well, they did add a guy from fifteen years ago; Jim Thome. However, that doesn’t stop this team from being the roller-coasters of major league baseball. . We really have no idea how this team was the first to 30 wins, then plummeted to .500, then had a resurgence, and are now floundering back toward mediocrity.

14) Toronto Blue Jays – Previous Rank #14 ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team has talent that should really give them a bright future.

Downside: The future isn’t today. The Blue Jays had a great season last year due to a rejuvenated offense led by Jose Bautista’s 54 homers. That isn’t likely to happen again, but if it does, Toronto could be in the three-way fight to finish third in the AL East.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

Two words – Jose Bautista…and his major-league leading 39 homers, along with 91 RBI and a .301 average.  His consistent production is the reason this team rates this high; if Toronto can put some other bats around him, this team could be on its way to a future.

15)  Cincinnati Reds – Previous Rank #15

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  This team has one of the two young pitching staffs with  huge potential. They also have a reigning MVP in Joey Votto, and all signs point to this being the breakout year for Jay Bruce. Plus, they are in the NL Central, where nobody is going to be any good.

Downside: That pitching staff is managed by Dusty “The Ligament Shredder” Baker, and there’s no telling how long the Scott Rolen miracle will continue.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

The Reds have a really nice starter set for a contender in Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and certain parts of the pitching staff. But, they don’t have the supporting characters.

16) Chicago White Sox – Previous Rank #18 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This is another line-up that will score runs, especially with the addition of Adam Dunn and the fact they will be no longer wasting at-bats on Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones.  If  Alex Rios’ resurgence wasn’t a fluke, if they can get Carlos Quentin healthy, and if Gordon Beckham plays like he did late last  year, they could run away with the AL Central.

Downside: Also known as the reasons why they won’t win the division, namely a pitching staff that is completely fraudulent after Mark Buehrle, and the fact they have no depth. A couple of key injuries, and this team suddenly becomes the Royals.

And Coming Into the Homestretch: Pretender

The good news: Their are a lot of people who thnik this team can make it into the playoffs.

The bad news: None of those people are not on the White Sox payroll.

17) Washington Nationals – Previous Rank #17 

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team certainly seems to get the idea that their time starts in 2012 or 2013, and they are building to that. There future is so bright, they may in fact need to wear shades.They’ve cracked open the piggy-bank, even to a ridiculous level, but in that spend-gasm they have sent the message they intend to field a competitive team built around the young phenoms in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  The pitching staff is solid, although unspectacular.

Downside: Timing…this is the year the Gnats take a step toward the future by finishing in front of the meltdown known as the Mets. But this year is the last year before the expectations are going to go up. They can still be terrible this year, but if they finish fifth in 2013, they may just become a red version of the Cubs.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

It may not be 2012, and it may not even be 2013, but this team has a bright future. As usual,  Jayson Werth is not included in this vision.

18) Los Angeles Dodgers – Previous Rank #22 ↑4

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have a couple of decent starters, they have some interesting arms in the bullpen, and Frank McCourt likely won’t own this team much longer.

Downside: Here’s the Dodgers represented in punctuation ???????????????????????????????????? This team is nothing but a parade of questions, not the least of which is who will own it this time next year? Who will pay the bills until then? Who, if anybody on this offense is actually going to do something at the plate?

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

The Dodgers are like a Hollywood sequel which has the same plot as its predecessor; Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier tend to hide how truly lousy this team is.

19)  Colorado Rockies – Previous Rank #18 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have 3 of the most exciting young players in baseball in Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez.

Downside: That’s really all they have.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

Another season that started in Colorado with promise sees that promise broken.

20) Pittsburgh Pirates – Previous Rank #20 ↓4

What We Said Originally:

Upside: All things considered, the Pirates have actually cobbled together some pieces that threaten to put them on the verge of respectability. Don’t get me wrong, they aren’t there yet, but with some young talent like Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, they at least have something to build on.

Downside: But will they build on it? You don’t go through two decades of being a laughing stock without making a science out of bad decision making. Also, if they decide to build, will they finally invest in some pitching?

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

The Pirates were the “feel-good” story of the year; the last time the Bucs were  over .500 at the All-Star break the Minnesota Twins were the defending World Champions, George H.W. Bush was president, and a gallon of gasoline cost $1.13. But those days, like the Pirates’ play-off hopes, are gone.

21) New York Mets – Previous Rank #22  ↑1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: If you believe in rays of hope, here’s a couple.  Brad Emaus will have double digit home runs and stolen bases for the Mets…his on-base percentage in the minors the last two years was .402 and .395, respectively.  Jose Reyes will score 100 runs, steal 40 bases and hit double-digit home runs…he’s in a contract year, and numbers like that could make him baseball’s next $100 million.

Downside: Right after any of those things happen, we can all join hands and visit the fairy princess together. Not only does the ownership situation threaten to sink the ship, it completely kills the ability to make the moves the Mets need to stay relevant in the NL East. Let’s face it, meltdown, dumpster fire, train wreck…they all are synonymous with “Mets.”

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

They are as much of a train wreck ownership-wise as the Dodgers, but they don’t hae the talent of the Dodgers. This team didn’t have a guy with 50 RBIs after the Beltran trade until a few days ago, and still doesn’t have a guy with 15 homers.

22) Oakland Athletics – Previous Rank #24 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This is the other team with the fascinating young pitching staff. The top four starters in Oakland combined for a 3.16 ERA in 700 innings pitched last season.

Downside: Their offense was what let them down last year, and they only added Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham. There aren’t a lot of guarantees on engine performance when you only add two used spark plugs.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

This team simply doesn’t have enough talent to matter past July, and I’m not sure when that will change.

23) Florida Marlins – Previous Rank #21 ↓2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Don’t look now, but this team can pitch.

Downside: What will the offense be without Dan Uggla, and what will Mike Stanton do in a full season?

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

This team never recovered from the swoon that got Fredi Gonzalez fired, and Jack McKeon isn’t exactly the “new blood” this team sorely needs. Ozzie Guillen will be the manager of this team about 45 seconds after he get fired by the White Sox.

24)  San Diego Padres – Previous Rank #25 ↑1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: You really can’t beat the weather in San Diego…and they still have a nice, albeit thin,  pitching staff.

Downside:  The competitive days are over, at least for a while. With the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, this team will be in rebuilding mode for a while.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

The pitching is carrying this team – the Padres are fourth in team ERA, and fifth in hits and runs allowed. However, at the plate they are dead last in team batting average.

25) Chicago Cubs – Previous Rank #25 

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Its spring, when Cubs fans everywhere have hope that at long last, this will finally be the year the winning drought in Wrigley Field ends.

Downside: The Cubs have an average-at-best rotation, and aging stars on offense. Spring becomes summer; the drought continues.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

The Cubs faithful are now looking forward to year #104 of abject futility. Firing Jim Hendry wasn’t overdue, but it did need to happen.

26)  Seattle Mariners – Previous Rank #19  ↓7

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Felix Hernandez. Here’s how a guy wins a Cy Young Award on 13 measly wins: 2.27 ERA, 249.2 innings, 232 K, 1.06 WHIP, and a .212 BAA. He’s either the lynchpin of your pitching rotation for the next decade, or he’s the guy you will get a king’s ransom for some July in the future.

Downside: The line-up. After Ichiro, Seattle becomes a black hole of offense. This team will struggle to score three runs a game. If this team wins 75 games, I will eat my keyboard.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

This team has 28 games to play, and has 58 wins. To get me to eat my keyboard, the Mariners will have to win 18 of those remaining games; a .643 winning percentage. I think both my keyboard and my stomach are safe.

27) Kansas City Royals – Previous Rank #29 ↑2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They got rid of the over-rated and soon-to-be-oft-injured Zach Grienke, and the monstrously overpaid Gil Meche. Now all they have to do is get rid of humps like anybody currently in the Royal outfield and the entire pitching staff except for Joakim Soria, so they can start bringing up the talent they are over-stocked on in the minors.

Downside: General Manager Dayton Moore is a bit of an unproven commodity, so there’s no guarantee that he isn’t going to mortgage the future if the fans expectations suddenly outstrip the team’s talent.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

This team didn’t move up because they got better; the teams under them got worse.

28) Baltimore Orioles – Previous Rank #28

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Don’t look now, but this team doesn’t suck.  Seriously, it jumped out at me how not terrible this line-up is: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy…and with Jake Fox crushing the ball this spring, Buck Showalter is going to have some interesting options on the line-up card.

Downside: Even though Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman show a ton of potential in the rotation, the rest of the pitching staff is thinner than an Ethiopian swimsuit model.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

This team is why Mike Flanagan shot himself.

29) Minnesota Twins – Previous Rank #26 ↓3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: No matter what, this team always gets a miracle out of somebody when they need it, as in Jim Thome last year.

Downside: They might need that miracle, because this team really underwhelms me on paper, especially if this Morneau concussion situation keeps dragging on. Besides, to be honest, I’m growing weary of the Twins model – start slow, finish strong, get crushed by the Yankees in October.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

At least Twins fans won’t need to worry about how they lose to the Yankees in October.

30) Houston Astros – Previous Rank #29 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  See the Tampa Bay Rays…hopefully the nightmare is over soon.  Last year saw the Astros had a fire sale which leaves them arguably as a Texas version of the Pirates, although I’m not sure the are as good as the Pirates. After the carnage, they are left with a team consisting of a pitching staff starring a warmed-over Brett Myers and a pseudo-talented outfield. Hunter Pence is entering his prime and coming off a .282/25/91 season and now carries the torch as Houston’s best player. In left field, Carlos Lee still can put up some power numbers, although he’s is begin to show the signs of age. Michael Bourn swiped 52 bases last season and  Jason Michaels can play all three outfield positions.

Downside: Look at the Upside. Hunter Pence is your best player. Brett Myers is your best pitcher.  The credible concept has been floated you are worse than the Pirates.

And Coming Into the Homestretch:

The only bright spot for the future of this team was the new ownership of Jim Crane, but even that is now on hold. This team will suck for at least a decade.








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