Now that we are finally past the Super Bowl, it is time to address the needs of your team heading into the NFL Draft. So, while you are spending today erasing that fog in your head made of far too much cheap beer and delivery pizza, take a few moments to look forward so that your team can give itself a better shot to be where the Packers find themselves today.
Everybody has a “mock draft or a “big draft board,” and we are no different…well, except we here at Dubsism are not interested in being the next Mel Kiper; we are more interested in making your team better rather than listening to ourselves blather on or getting some face time four our increasingly-odd pompadour. In other words, we wholeheartedly reject the Mel Kiper theory which states you always draft the best player available. Sometimes, you are better off making a move to help your team. Be advised that as you peruse this list, “The Kiper Theory” is based on the Dubsism Big Board, which does not really care what Mel says, and doesn’t really care about workouts, combines, and the silliness of those college “all-star ” games which are really just glorified scrimmages.
1) Carolina Panthers
What the Kiper Theory Says: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
What Dubsism Believes: Trade Down
I get why Fairley tops the draft board, he’s a killer who can either play the attacking end in a 3-4 scheme, or be a two-gap tackle in a 4-3 setup. To be honest, he likely fits best in a one-gap system, but his explosive nature allows him to routinely disrupt the the opponents backfield.
But face it…the Panthers have more holes to fill than draft picks with which to do so. The math is simple; trading this pick would result in an opportunity to get two, perhaps three picks in a draft that is chock full of defensive talent. Granted, whoever trades with the Panthers likely does so to take Fairley.
2) Denver Broncos
What the Kiper Theory Says: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
What Dubsism Believes: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Assuming Elvis Dumervil returns from his torn pectoral injury, he gives the Broncos an established edge pass-rusher. However, Peterson is a natural talent that should improve any defense, both run and pass. Plus, his great straight-line speed means he closes gaps in pass coverage and makes for a dynamic return man. The possibility exists that Champ Bailey might not be back, which means the secondary would suddenly become the Broncos most glaring need amongst the several they already have.
3) Buffalo Bills
What the Kiper Theory Says: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
What Dubsism Believes: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
The conventional wisdom says the top two defensive lineman will be off the board by this time. If that’s true, the Bills might be tempted to succumb to the Kiper theory by taking Patrick Peterson at this spot. But don’t forget the Bills have a solid offense in the making, and Green would provide a perfect deep option. If you don’t buy that, remember the Bills came within a Steve Johnson drop of beating the Steelers.
Big time receivers don’t come along every year, especially not ones who would be such a perfect fit for an offense dying for a star deep threat. Green’s speed, size, and athleticism could make the Bills receiving corps a nightmare to defend, especially if 6-5, 220-pound David Nelson continues to emerge.
4) Cincinnati Bengals
What the Kiper Theory Says: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
What Dubsism Believes: Trade Down
If you are the Bengals, you have three options. First is to get a quarterback for the future, as it is clear the Carson Palmer fantasy isn’t going to happen. However, Dan LeFevour could be grown into a NFL quarterback, and even if Bengal Nation doesn’t agree, there is no quarterback worth taking this high. If Marvin Lewis is serious about going to a run-first offense, you need depth at running back and on the offensive line; again, there is nobody in those categories worthy of a #4 overall pick. Finally, the Bengals could choose to build on what was a massively disappointing defense; trading down could net Cincinnati solid players at reduced prices as this draft is stocked with defensive talent.
5) Arizona Cardinals
What the Kiper Theory Says: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
What Dubsism Believes: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Amukamara has all the physical skills to be great in run support and in coverage. But, the Cardinals are in desperate need of a quarterback, and they are likely to be the team the buys the hype on Blaine Gabbert.
6) Cleveland Browns
What the Kiper Theory Says: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
What Dubsism Believes: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson or Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
The Browns could use a wide receiver, so in the unlikely event A.J. Green is still on the board, they would have to take him. But they also could use some help along the defensive front seven so Da’Quan Bowers would be a gift in this spot. If not, Smith is the pick, and he is the guy most likely to still be available at #6 available even though he may be the best pure pass-rusher in the draft.
7) San Francisco 49ers
What the Kiper Theory Says: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
What Dubsism Believes: Make a Trade
While Kerrigan is an incredibly productive pass-rush specialist, he isn’t going to fit well into the 49ers 3-4 scheme. The glaring need this team has is at quarterback; packaging this pick in a deal with Denver that would net the 49ers Kyle Orton would be the smart move.
8 ) Tennessee Titans
What the Kiper Theory Says: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
What Dubsism Believes: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
This pick really frightens me, because there are so many options, and the chance to make a HUGE mistake. If Ryan Kerrigan is available, he’s exactly the kind of pass-rusher the Titans could use. Gabe Carimi could add some heft to an offensive line that could lead the way for Chris Johnson, since this team isn’t likely to have a quarterback. Which leads us to the Cam Newton mistake, which I can totally see the Titans making. After all, when at first you don’t succeed (Vince Young), try, try, again. This means Cam Newton presents the rare opportunity to be the pick which dooms a franchise for at least five years.
9) Dallas Cowboys
What the Kiper Theory Says: Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
What Dubsism Believes: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Dareus has a ton of upside, but Kerrigan would be the perfect catalyst for the Cowboys to abandon their massively mediocre 3-4 system.
10) Washington Redskins
What the Kiper Theory Says: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
What Dubsism Believes: Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
Dareus is an incredible prospect from Nick Saban’s defense who plays well against the pass and the run, and his experience in the 3-4 is a big plus given the recent Albert Haynesworth fiasco. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter since until the Redskins can draft a new owner, they will be a train-wreck of a franchise.
11) Houston Texans
What the Kiper Theory Says: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
What Dubsism Believes: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
The Texans are set at D-tackle, and we believe Wilkerson may be a “pig in a poke.” He does have so much potential upside that you can’t ignore him, but he also needs to go to the right place, and that isn’t Houston. Jordan is a dominant end that can play both the run and pass.
12) Minnesota Vikings
What the Kiper Theory Says: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
What Dubsism Believes: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State or Make a Trade
Without a quarterback the Vikings have a few options. First, they can draft Sherrod to shore up an offensive line that outside of LG Steve Hutchinson and C John Sullivan flat-out sucks. Even Sullivan is still developing, and Sherrod would make a solid addition. The other option is to package a deal to get Donovan McNabb; the deal gets even better if you can unload over-priced under-achievers like Bryant McKinnie, Phil Loadholt, and Jared Allen.
13) Detroit Lions
What the Kiper Theory Says: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
What Dubsism Believes: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M or Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
One of the few good things the Lions have is Ndamukong Suh, and it is time for the Lions to build around what may be the most dominant defensive lineman since Alan Page. They really can’t go wrong with either of these picks, on the one side they get a lineman to play bookend with Suh, or they get a linebacker to eventually supplant the aging Julian Peterson.
14) St. Louis Rams
What the Kiper Theory Says: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
What Dubsism Believes: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Rams’ offense has a young quarterback who shows all the signs of being the real deal, having been named Offensive Rookie of the Year. It also boasts the only running back in the NFL to rush for 1,000 yards in each of the last six seasons. What it needs is a deep threat, and Julio Jones fits that bill, with his freak-show build and skills.
15) Miami Dolphins
What the Kiper Theory Says: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
What Dubsism Believes: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
Moore, a two-time All-American, lead the country in interceptions with 10 in 2009. Moore will be the first safety off the board during the April draft; the Dolphins would have loved to add Julio Jones to their offense to pair with Brandon Marshall, but we see him being gone by the time Miami selects and they simply can’t pass Moore at this spot.
16) Jacksonville Jaguars
What the Kiper Theory Says: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
What Dubsism Believes: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Solder is mammoth even for a lineman (6’9″), and he has all the potential in the world. The Jags need better protection for David Garrard and an escort for Maurice Jones-Drew, and Solder could easily grow into one the games dominant tackles.
17) New England Patriots (pick from Oakland Raiders)
What the Kiper Theory Says: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
What Dubsism Believes: Trade Up
The Patriots have an interesting circumstance, they have two first-round picks in a draft full of what they need; linemen on both sides of the ball. The move here is to trade up to Carolina’s pick to take Nick Fairley. If not, the Patriots take Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa with this pick.
18) San Diego Chargers
What the Kiper Theory Says: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
What Dubsism Beleives: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Here’s another case where the “Kiper” pick is likely to be off the board by the time the Chargers are on the clock. There’s a ton of mock drafts which have Quinn going much higher, but he brings too many unknowns to be a top 5 pick. Still, he brings a level of talent that ensures he goes somewhere in the first round; he brings an edge rush capability that any team could use.
19) New York Giants
What the Kiper Theory Says: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
What Dubsism Believes: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
The Giants offensive line is beginning to show its age; right now 3 of the 5 starters have been in the league 10 years or more. The time is now, the pick is Smith.
20) Tampa Bay Bucs
What the Kiper Theory Says: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida
What Dubsism Believes: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida
Center is a legitimate need for the Buccaneers. If Pouncey is available at this point there no way Tampa doesn’t select him.
21) Kansas City Chiefs
What the Kiper Theory Says: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
What Dubsism Believes: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The Chiefs are largely a young team, except along the offensive line which has a 10-year and a 15-year veteran. Costanzo is a great prospect that will bring some depth and new blood to their offensive line.
22) Indianapolis Colts
What the Kiper Theory Says: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
What Dubsism Believes: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama or Make a Trade
The need for the Colts to establish a running game was made apparent this past season; Peyton Manning simply cannot carry this team by himself any longer. This means the Colts need a running back and/or some offensive lineman. There simply aren’t any enough O-linemen in the first round for there to be one left at this slot, but trading down to the second round would offer a shot to grab two good ones.
23) Philadelphia Eagles
What the Kiper Theory Says: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
What Dubsism Believes: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Picking a quarterback here almost makes sense, as the Eagles are keeping Michael Vick and likely trading Kevin Kolb, except there will be QBs available in the later rounds, and if a player like Ayers is still on the board, look for the Eagles to add yet another a disruptive force along the edges; Ayers is well-suited to make plays in an aggressive defense.
24) New Orleans Saints
What the Kiper Theory Says: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
What Dubsism Believes: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Houston represents a good all-around option to bolster the linebacking corps around Jonathan Vilma; he offers great athleticism and instincts. The Saints could take Watt here, but it’s more likely he slips to the Packers at #32.
25) Seattle Seahawks
What the Kiper Theory Says: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
What Dubsism Believes: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Again, we don’t expect Castonzo to last on the board this long. Liuget made his name as a defender who is often “unblockable.” He is versatile and can play nose tackle in passing situations. He has tremendous upper-body strength.
26) Baltimore Ravens
What the Kiper Theory Says: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
What Dubsism Believes: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
In what proves to be a theme at this end of the round, a lot of time the guy you should get goes to another. However, Heyward makes a good fit with the Ravens, his versatility means he could play as an undersized 4-3 DT, a successful stand-up edge rusher, or 4-3 DE.
27) Atlanta Falcons
What the Kiper Theory Says: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
What Dubsism Believes: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)
Though he is somewhat undersized for the defensive line, Bailey features tremendous strength, speed, and athleticism. He also comes from in Georgia called Hog Hammock where he is rumored to have once killed an alligator with a shovel. How can you not love that kind of killer instinct in a defensive lineman.
28) New England Patriots
What the Kiper Theory Says: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
What Dubsism Believes: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Everybody has this guy rated high, including us, but he really looks like he could be the fall of the draft. Wilkerson is an ideal 5-technique end who sheds blockers with ease. This is a trademark Patriots pick, look for them to score a quality player which most casual fans never heard of.
29) Chicago Bears
What the Kiper Theory Says: Kyle Rudolf, TE, Notre Dame
What Dubsism Believes: Matt Reynolds, OT, BYU
If you saw the shit-hammering Jay Cutler took all season long, you know the Bears’ must upgrade the offensive line.
30) New York Jets
What the Kiper Theory Says: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
What Dubsism Believes: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
The last thing the Jets need is a quarterback. The offensive line could use help, but in this draft that’s what you have the later rounds for. In this case, the Jets might as well build on their strength.
31) Pittsburgh Steelers
What the Kiper Theory Says: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
What Dubsism Believes: Kyle Rudolf, TE, Notre Dame
This is another team which could use offensive line help, but there’s just nothing available at this point. But let’s be honest, if there’s a team that loves a tight end, its the Steelers.
32) Green Bay Packers
What the Kiper Theory Says: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL
What Dubsism Believes: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin
If we saw anything in the Super Bowl, it was that the Packers could use some D-line bolstering. The alligator-killer won’t be available, but Watt is a versatile defensive linemen that should excel; he’s explosive against the run and the pass, Watt has that cliche “motor that just won’t quit,” check out the accolades on this guy:
- Lott IMPACT Trophy for nation’s top defensive player on and off the field (2010)
- Second-team All-American (2010)
- All-Big Ten (2010)
- All-Big Ten honorable mention (2009)
- Wisconsin Team MVP (2010);
- Finalist for Bednarik and Hendricks Awards (2010)
Watt delivered 21 tackles for a loss in 2010, including seven sacks, and the Packers sorely need more run-stoppers; plus, the Lott award and his Academic All-American status suggests both intelligence and high character.