The Dubsism 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Predictions

EDITOR’S NOTE: This list is being completed based on who has been ruled ineligible for post-season play as of today’s date.

Having said that, there are some noteworthy points concerning this bowl season. From CollegeFootballPoll.com:

BCS Selection Order: The order of selection for this year’s BCS games is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. However, the bowls that lose host conference champions to the BCS title game get to replace those teams before other selections are made.  See the complete BCS Selection Procedures here.

Notre Dame is eligible for all bowls in which the Big East has a commitment, as well as the BCS.  It also serves as the backup for the Big 12 in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Navy will be invited to the Kraft Hunger Bowl if it qualifies for selection. If Navy is ineligible, the #9 team from the ACC is next in-line to be invited. Navy has secured a similar deal with the Armed Forces Bowl in 2013 and 2016.

Army will be invited to the Military Bowl if it qualifies for selection. Army has secured a similar deal with the Poinsettia Bowl in 2013, and the Armed Forces Bowl for 2014 and 2017.

BYU will be invited to the Poinsettia Bowl if it qualifies for selection. The Cougars have secured a similar deal with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in 2013.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl gets the first pick of MAC teams in 2012. The GoDaddy.com Bowl gets the second pick in 2012, and the first selection in 2013.

The MAC has secondary bowl agreements in 2012 with the New Mexico, Beef O’Brady’s, BBVA Compass, Ticket City and Poinsettia Bowls.

Hawaii is automatically invited to the Hawaii Bowl if it has at least 7 wins.  Otherwise, the MWC sends its 3rd-place team.

Payouts: Amounts shown do not necessarily reflect what each school receives. The conferences have different methods by which bowl money is divided among its membership. Some bowl agreements call for higher payouts to one conference than the other, depending on such factors as which is the “host” conference. Most of the above payouts are based on actual figures from the Football Bowl Association for the 2010-2011 season, while others are published estimates of anticipated payouts for the current year.

There has also been a change in eligibility requirements because it is very possible the NCAA will not produce enough eligible teams at the prior 6-win mark. Those changes beyond the 6-wins are as follows.

1. First consideration goes to 6-6 teams with one win against Football Championship Subdivision teams, regardless of whether that FCS school meets NCAA scholarship requirements. Until now, an FCS win only counted if that opponent met the scholarship requirements.

2. Next up for consideration are 6-6 teams with two wins over FCS schools. It’s really rare for an FBS school to schedule two FCS opponents in a single year.

3. Teams that finish 6-7 and lose in the conference championship game are next. Call this the UCLA rule. The Bruins, staring at a 6-6 record before the Pac-12 Championship Game last season, got a waiver from the NCAA to be bowl-eligible even if they lost, which they did. UCLA then lost in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl to finish 6-8.

4. Then come 6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii and its home opponents.

5. Up next are FCS teams making the transition to the FBS, if they have at least a 6-6 record. Big winners under that rule: South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State and UMass, who are all in the process of reclassifying from FCS to FBS. Suddenly and bizarrely, South Alabama’s Aug. 30 opener against Texas-San Antonio in Mobile carries some potential bowl significance.

6. Finally, the nod would go to 5-7 teams that have a top-5 Academic Progress Rate score. So there’s new hope for Duke, which hasn’t gone to a bowl since 1995.
This process was created as the bowl system faces significant pressure to fill every postseason game in 2012. Ohio State, Penn State, North Carolina and Central Florida face bowl bans this season, although UCF is appealing and may still be eligible in 2012. Also, there are unresolved NCAA cases involving Oregon and Miami, which self-imposed a bowl ban in 2011.

This is being done because last season, college football had only 72 eligible teams for 70 bowl slots.

Taking all of that into consideration, here are the Dubsism 2012-2013 Bowl Predictions.

Bowl Championship Series:

BCS Championship:

  • Jan. 7
  • BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
  • Payout: $18,000,000
  • USC (Pac-12 #1) vs. LSU (SEC #1)

Fiesta Bowl:

  • Jan. 3
  • Big 12 vs. At-large
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Oklahoma (Big 12 #1) vs. Michigan (Big Ten #2)

Sugar Bowl:

  • Jan. 2
  • SEC vs. At-large
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Alabama (SEC #2) vs. Clemson (ACC #2)

Orange Bowl:

  • Jan. 1
  • ACC vs. At-large
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Florida State (ACC#1) vs. West Virginia (Big 12 #2)

Rose Bowl:

  • Jan. 1
  • Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Payout: $17,000,000
  • Wisconsin (Big Ten #1) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 #2)

Other:

Capital One Bowl:

  • Jan. 1
  • Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2
  • Payout: $4,550,000
  • Michigan State (Big Ten #3) vs. Georgia (SEC #3)

Chick-fil-A Bowl:  

  • Dec. 31
  • ACC # 2 vs. SEC # 5
  • Payout: $3,967,500 ACC; $2,932,500 SEC
  • Virginia Tech (ACC #3) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC #5)

Cotton Bowl:

  • Jan. 4
  • Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3/4
  • Payout: $3,625,000
  • Kansas State (Big 12 #3) vs. Arkansas (SEC #6)

Gator Bowl :

  • Jan. 1
  • Big Ten #4/5 vs. SEC #6
  • Payout: $3,500,000
  • Iowa (Big Ten #6) vs. Auburn (SEC #7)

Outback Bowl:

  • Jan. 1
  • Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
  • Payout: $3,500,000
  • Nebraska (Big Ten #4) vs. South Carolina (SEC #4)

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (formerly the Insight Bowl):

  • Dec. 29
  • Big 10 #4/5 vs. Big 12 #4
  • Payout: $3,350,000
  • Purdue (Big Ten #7) vs. TCU (Big 12 #5)

Alamo Bowl:

  • Dec. 29
  • Big 12 #3 vs. Pac-12 #2
  • Payout: $3,175,000
  • Oklahoma State (Big 12 #4) vs. Utah (Pac-12 #3)

Russell Athletic Bowl (formerly the Champs Sports Bowl):

  • Dec. 28
  • Big East #2 vs. ACC #3
  • Payout: $2,275,000
  • Louisville (Big East #1) vs. Georgia Tech (ACC #5)

Holiday Bowl:

  • Dec. 27
  • Pac-12 #3 vs. Big 12 #5
  • Payout: $2,075,000
  • Stanford (Pac-12 #4) vs. Baylor (Big 12 #6)

Sun Bowl:

  • Dec. 31
  • ACC #4 vs. Pac-12 #4
  • Payout: $2,000,000
  • Virginia (ACC #6) vs. Washington (Pac-12 #5)

Music City Bowl:

  • Dec. 31
  • ACC#6 vs. SEC #7
  • Payout: $1,837,500
  • North Carolina State (ACC #7) vs. Florida (SEC #8)

Pinstripe Bowl:

  • Dec. 29
  • Big East #4 vs. Big 12 #7
  • Payout: $1,800,000
  • Rutgers (Big East #3) vs. Notre Dame

Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl:

  • Dec. 28
  • Big 12 #6 vs. Big Ten # 6
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • Texas (Big 12 #7) vs. Northwestern (Big Ten #9)

Belk Bowl:

  • Dec. 27
  • Big East #3 vs. ACC #5
  • Payout: $1,700,000
  • South Florida (Big East #2) vs. Miami (Fla.) (ACC #8)

Liberty Bowl:

  • Dec. 31
  • C-USA #1 vs. Big East/SEC # 8/9
  • Payout: $1,437,500
  • Houston (C-USA #1) vs. Mississippi State (SEC #9)

Independence Bowl:

  • Dec. 28
  • SEC #10 vs. ACC#7
  • Payout: $1,150,000
  • Texas A&M (SEC #10) vs. Wake Forest (ACC #9)

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl:

  • Dec. 22
  • MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #5
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Boise State (MWC #1) vs. UCLA (Pac-12 #7)

TicketCity Bowl:

  • Jan. 1
  • Big Ten #7 vs. C-USA
  • Payout: $1,100,000
  • Arizona (Pac-12 #8) Southern Methodist (C-USA #6)

BBVA Compass:

  • Jan. 5
  • SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5
  • Payout: $1,000,025 SEC; $900,000 Big East
  • Missouri (SEC #11) vs. Pittsburgh (Big East #4)

Military Bowl:

  • Dec. 27
  • ACC #9 vs. Army/C-USA
  • Payout: $1,000,000
  • Army vs. East Carolina (C-USA #5)

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:

  • Dec. 29
  • Pac-12 #6 vs. Navy/ACC #9
  • Payout: $837,500
  • California (Pac-12 #7) vs. Navy

GoDaddy.com Bowl:

  • Jan. 6, Mobile, Alabama
  • MAC #2 vs. Sun Belt #2
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Northern Illinois (MAC #2) vs. Florida International (Sun Belt #2)

Armed Forces Bowl:

  • Dec. 29
  • C-USA #3 vs. MWC #4/5
  • Payout: $600,000
  • Tulsa (C-USA #3) vs. Fresno State (MWC #4)

Little Caesars Bowl:

  • Dec. 26
  • MAC #1 vs. Big Ten # 8
  • Payout: $750,000
  • Western Michigan (MAC #1) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt #3)

Hawaii Bowl:

  • Dec. 24
  • C-USA #2 vs. Hawaii/MWC#3
  • Payout: $650,000
  • Southern Mississippi (C-USA #2) vs. Wyoming (MWC #3)

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl:  

  • Dec. 21
  • Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4
  • Payout: $537,500
  • Cincinnati (Big East #5) vs. Ohio (MAC #4)

New Orleans Bowl:

  • Dec.22
  • Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA #5
  • Payout:$500,000
  • Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt #1) vs. Louisiana Tech (WAC #2)

Poinsettia Bowl:

  • Dec. 20
  • MWC #2 vs. BYU/WAC
  • Payout: $500,000
  • Nevada (MWC #2) vs. Brigham Young

New Mexico Bowl:

  • Dec. 15
  • MWC #4/5 vs. Pac-12 #7/WAC
  • Payout: $456,250
  • San Diego State (MWC #5) vs. Bowling Green (MAC #6)

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:

  • Dec. 15
  • WAC #1/2 vs. MAC #3
  • Payout: $325,000
  • San Jose State (WAC #1) vs. Toledo (MAC #3)
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2 responses

  1. You just made all your Clemson readers shiver with fear.

    Wait, Clemson people read, right?

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