What Your Team Needs To Do With It’s 2012 NFL Draft Pick

9 02 2012

Now that we are finally past the Super Bowl, it is time to address the needs of your team heading into the NFL Draft. Everybody has a “mock draft or a “big draft board,” and we are no different…well, except we here at Dubsism are not interested in being the next Mel Kiper; we are more interested in making your team better rather than listening to ourselves blather on or getting some face time four our increasingly-odd pompadour.

In other words, we wholeheartedly reject the “Mel Kiper theory” which states you always draft the best player available. Sometimes, you are better off making a move to help your team. Be advised that as you peruse this list, “The Kiper Theory” is based on an aggregate of several mock drafts and Kiper’s own board. Then, we will give you the best available player according to the Dubsism Big Board. After that, we will give you the straight dope on what we believe your team really needs to do to best address its needs.  Be advised that we here at Dubsism really don’t care what Mel says, and we really don’t care that much about workouts, combines, and the silliness of those college “all-star ” games which are really just glorified scrimmages. Instead, we are all about realistic football solutions.

1) Indianapolis Colts

  • What the Kiper Theory Says:  Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
  • What Dubsism Believes: This is the biggest “no-brainer” in this draft. The Manning era in Indianapolis is over, and this is the Colts’ best opportunity to turn the page. It’s time to release Manning, draft Luck, and build for the future.

2) St. Louis Rams

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
  • What Dubsism Believes: There’s two ways to look at this pick. It’s never a bad investment to get a blue-chip lineman to protect your $50 million quarterback. But, with the addition of a honest-to-goodness deep threat at receiver, the Rams offense suddenly gets legitimate. The decision is to take Kalil with this pick or trade down and take Justin Blackmon or Alshon Jeffery a few picks later.

3) Minnesota Vikings

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
  • What Dubsism Believes: If Matt Kalil is still on the board at #3, the Vikings have to take him. They don’t need a quarterback or a running back; they need a way to keep quarterbacks and running backs from becoming lunch meat. If Kalil is already off the board, the Vikes need to seriously look at Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa. We have Riley as #6 overall pick; The Kiper conglomerate has him at #8. Trading down would be a good move, but if they can’t get any takers they need to just bite the bullet and get the best lineman on the board.

4) Cleveland Browns 

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
  • What Dubsism Believes:  There’s a good chance Robert Griffin III is still on the board here; and I think we all know the Colt McCoy experiment is over.  Either trade up to make sure you get him as there’s a gap down to the next available quarterback, or trade down and address other needs. We also don’t buy the “slow” rap getting hung on Alshon Jeffery. This guy is going to be a dominant receiver in this league, but he won’t help the Browns until they get a quarterback.

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Bucs can’t go wrong with either of these picks. Josh Freeman needs weapons to work with to make the Tampa offense more than na automated 3-and-out machine.

6) Washington Redskins

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
  • What Dubsism Believes: This is the first opportunity we have to be dismissive of all the “Where will Peyton Manning go?” scenarios. We do so because it is the considered opinion of the staff here at Dubsism that Manning is not going to play again. Therefore, we are discounting the effect of his presence from our projections. The Redskins take Claiborne with this pick.

7) Jacksonville Jaguars

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
  • What Dubsism Believes: We can’t see the Jaguars taking a wide receiver here. They are unsure of their young quarterback who is in desperate need of protection. The only thing they have is a running game, and a lineman helps that too. They take Riley Reiff if he is still available.

8 or 9) Carolina Panthers (coin flip to be determined at the NFL Combines)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
  • What Dubsism Believes: Look for the Panthers to invest in defense, particularly in big D-lineman like Coples to get after the Brees and Ryans the Panthers get to face in the NFC South

8 or 9) Miami Dolphins (coin flip to be determined at the NFL Combines)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Michael Brockers, DE, LSU
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Dolphins just hired an offensive coordinator as head coach, but there’s a void of offensive talent at this spot in the draft.  Couple that with the fact new head coach Joe Philbin said he wants to convert his defense to a 4-3.  The Dolphins will take Brockers at this spot since they need a pass-rusher to book-end with Cameron Wake.

10) Buffalo Bills

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
  • What Dubsism Believes: Head Coach Chan Gailey has recently been on the record about his team’s inability to get to the quarterback, and it’s easy to understand why. No one on the team finished with more than 5.5 sacks on the year.  Melvin Ingram is currently the top pass-rusher available at this spot in the wake of his dominant Senior Bowl practices, and the “buyer beware” attitude toward Quinton Coples if he is still around.

11 or 12) Kansas City Chiefs (coin flip to be determined at the NFL Combines)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
  • What Dubsism Believes: Martin meets a bigger need as the Chiefs offensive line might as well be the Maginot Line.

11 or 12) Seattle Seahawks: (coin flip to be determined at the NFL Combines)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
  • What Dubsism Believes: Nothing this team does matters unless it gets a quarterback or offensive lineman to aid the only weapon they have in Marshawn Lynch.  They are fools if they don’t trade this pick to get something they need.

13) Arizona Cardinals

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Cardinals thought they shored up their inside linebacker problems when they signed Stewart Bradley to a 5-year, $25 million contract with $10 million guaranteed this offseason. Since then, Bradley has barely played, so he could be a cap casualty this offseason. Arizona’s search for a worthy player to pair with Daryl Washington likely ends here with Luke Kuechly.

14) Dallas Cowboys

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
  • What Dubsism Believes: There nothing quite like when all the stars align, and in the Lone Star state. The Cowboys have massive challenges on the interior of the offensive line. Derrick Dockery is a free agent after missing most of 2011 with a knee injury. Phil Costa flat out sucks. The best thing you can say about  Montrae Holland is he isn’t Costa.  Meanwhile, DeCastro is one of the top interior linemen prospects to come along in years, and he’s the highest-ranked O-Line prospect on the board at this point.

15) Philadelphia Eagles

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
  • What Dubsism Believes: DeSean Jackson is one his way out of the City of Brotherly Love, and he has nobody to blame for that but himself; he dropped too many passes and dogged it most of the time. But he had a strong finish to the 2011 season, which prompted Andy Reid to praise him during the Week 17 post-game press conference.  Of course, that’s all puffery for a tag-and-trade scheme; Jackson is as gone as yesterday’s lunch.  Welcome to the Kendall Wright era in Philadelphia.

16) New York Jets

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Jets need to improve their pass rush so Rex Ryan doesn’t have to call blitzes every single freaking down. This situation got even more desperate when OLB Bryan Thomas tore his Achilles tendon. Mercilus makes a perfect fit for the Jets’ needs.

17) Cincinnati Bengals (pick from Oakland Raiders)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
  • What Dubsism Believes: On one hand, I can’t understand why anybody thinks Alshon Jeffery will still be on the board at this pick. The whole world is looking for the next “Calvin Johnson,” and Jeffery looks every bit the part.  God help NFL secondaries should they have to face an A.J. Green/Jeffery tandem. On the other hand, I know why Dre Kirkpatrick will still be available here; his arrest for marijuana possession. I really couldn’t care less about that, but I do wonder about the brain capacity of a guy getting busted who knows he’s going to have to pee in a cup next month.  Some teams will remove Kirkpatrick from their board completely, but I think we all know the Bengals have a far more “tolerant” view of criminal behavior. This is why they are the only NFL team which has a bail bondsman on staff.  The bottom line is that cornerback is a blazing need for the Bengals. Nate Clements turns 32 in December, has been inconsistent, and is a free agent after 2012. To literally and injury to insult, Leon Hall won’t be ready to play next season because of his torn Achilles tendon. Kirkpatrick becomes a Bengal.

18) San Diego Chargers

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Chargers have a desperate need at safety; so much so they turned to the walking organ bank known as Bob Sanders last season with predictable results.  This is why you can expect the Chargers to make a slight reach for Alabama safety Mark Barron.

19) Chicago Bears

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Zach Brown, ILB, North Carolina
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Bears are totally telegraphing this pick, and the address they are sending to is only two hours east of Soldier Field. Jay Cutler was at his best when he had a big-time target in Brandon Marshall. Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd has some of the biggest potential of any player on the board, and the Bears have told the whole would they will target a wide receiver this offseason.

20) Tennessee Titans

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
  • What Dubsism Believes: Mike Munchak is the new head coach of the Titans. Mike Munchak has criticized the play of his offensive line. Mike Munchak is also a Hall-of-Fame offensive lineman. Mike Munchak drafts Mike Adams.

21) Cincinnati Bengals

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Bengals have this goofy philosophy in which they target certain positions to be drafted per round. The Bengals have one the best best run blocking offensive lines in all of the NFL. Sadly, this is like putting a hubcap on a tractor because that great bunch of road-graders has nobody worthy of clearing a path for. Cedric Benson is incredibly mediocre, and he’ll be a 29-year-old free agent in March anyway. This is why we are convinced the Bengals will use this pick to take either Chris Polk, RB, Washington or Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (FL).
22) Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons)
  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Jeral Worthy, DT, Michigan State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
  • What Dubsism Believes: This is the wild-card pick of the entire first round. If the Browns make a deal to move up to get Robert Griffin III, there’s no telling who will own this pick by the time it is made. If the Browns retain this pick, there’s no telling what they will do with it; they will have some kinky options at this point.  OT Mike Adams could be available as a bookend to Joe Thomas. Nick Perry will likely be around to play pass-rush counterpart to Jabaal Sheard.  Alfonzo Dennard might still be available to give the Browns a corner to tandem with Joe Haden. At this point, there might even be wild options like Alshon Jeffery, Fletcher Cox, or Zach Brown.  Not to belabor the obvious, but this is why we dismissed the whole “Manning” thing in the first place…too many variables.

23) Detroit Lions

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Zach Brown, ILB, North Carolina
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Lions have one big-time need…a left tackle to protect Matt Stafford. They get even more desperate considering eff Backus will be a free agent in March. They either need to trade up to get one of the guys who won’t be around at this pick, or trade down and live with one of the second-round guys.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
  • What Dubsism Believes: The Steelers have a long tradition of taking the usually take the top player on the board, and since they love defense, it is hard to imagine Quinton Coples wouldn’t be on their list. Trouble is he likely won’t be available at this point.  USC DE Nick Perry looks like the most likely suspect at this point.

25) Denver Broncos

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
  • What Dubsism Believes: Brodrick Bunkley had a great year as a run-stuffer, but the Broncos don’t really have anything next to him. As long as the Broncos are going to rely on the run game, they need more help on the offensive line. This is where they trade down and stock up on big guys up front, with the outside possibility they take Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin who likely will still be available.

26) Houston Texans

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
  • What Dubsism Believes: Aside from Arian Foster, the main cylinders in the engine that is the Texans offense are showing some wear. This is why the Texans want to draft a receiver in the first round, but at this point they may be praying Alshon Jeffery slips down this far, or that the Bears don’t reach on Michael Floyd. An alternative to trading up or down may be to take Brandon Weeden as a QB of the future, or to take Wisconsin C Peter Konz (if he is still available) as an insurance policy against losing C Chris Myers in free-agency.

27) New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints)

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Nick Perry, DE, USC
  • What Dubsism Believes: Both Mercilus and Perry would be good fits with the Patriots. They can both play defensive end in the 4-3 and rush linebacker 3-4, filling both needs in those schemes. They also are of the size Bill Belichick likes his rush linebackers to be.  If neither of these guys is available, don’t be shocked to see the Patriots either take Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower or trade this pick.

28) Green Bay Packers

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Michael Brockers, DE, LSU
  • What Dubsism Believes: No matter what, it is obvious the Packers need to steer this pick toward defense. They have no real offensive needs other than a running back, but it’s clear this team needs major help on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers a linebacker to go with Clay Matthews because the rest of the Packer linebacker corps were  ineffective. Either way, the Packers would love to see USC DE Nick Perry slip this far, but if that doesn’t happen expect them to grab Brockers (if available)or Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower.

29) Baltimore Ravens

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (FL)
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
  • What Dubsism Believes: There’s no way the Ravens take a running back in the first round.  In news that should surprise no one, the Ravens have made it clear RB Ray Rice is not hitting the free agent market this off-season either through a long-term extension or the dreaded franchise tag. Not to mention, General Manager Ozzie Newsome has made it known he would like to get Ray Lewis’ successor in this draft.  This si where “wild-card” Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict makes a lot of sense. We consider Burfict to be the best on-the-field inside linebacker in the draft, but his tendency to be a “head case” means a slide down through the first round is entirely possible. If he drops this far, he’s a perfect fit attitude-wise for the Ravens defense, he can play next to Lewis right away, and Ozzie Newsome has a track record of taking on talented head cases.

30) San Francisco 49ers

  • What the Kiper Theory Says:  Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
  • What Dubsism Believes: Here’s an interesting pick. The 49ers aren’t likely to take another offensive lineman in the first round, and we don’t think Michael Floyd will be around at this pick. Not to mention, Floyd and his off-field DUI issues don’t seem like a good fit on a Jim Harbaugh which already has primadonnas in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Despite that, they do need help at wide receiver, and a running back to spell the impending end of the Frank Gore era wouldn’t be a bad idea either. If for some reason Alshon Jeffery slides this far, he doesn’t get past San Francisco. Baylor WR Kendall is another guy whose stock is fluctuating already, so he becomes another possiblity. Otherwise, trading down to the early-to-mid 2nd round could mean extra picks to take Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill and our sleeper pick of the draft, Utah State RB Robert Turbin.

31) New England Patriots

  • What the Kiper Theory Says:  Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Andre Branch, OLB, Clemson
  • What Dubsism Believes: We are willing to bet the Patriots already grabbed their linebacker with the pick they got from the Saints. Their other huge need on defense is at corner, especially since they have ideas about using either Ras-I Dowling or Devin McCourty at safety, which may become a neccesity considering their weakness at the position and the lack of big-time safeties in this draft. This is why we think  Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard proves too hard to pass up at this pick.

32) New York Giants

  • What the Kiper Theory Says: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
  • What The Dubsism Big Board Says: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State
  • What Dubsism Believes: Turbin is our sleeper pick of the draft. We think this guy is rated as a 4th-round pick simply because he comes from the backwater of college football and he doesn’t have eye-popping workout numbers. We think this guy has every shot to be another Ray Rice.  I’m not sure you need to grab this guy at this pick, but somebody else out there is going to get wise to this guy between now and draft day.

- Dubsism is a proud member of the Sports Blog Movement

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11 responses

9 02 2012
chappy81

What’s up with the coin flips for the higher picks? Did I miss something?

9 02 2012
J-Dub

Those teams ended up tied after the tie-breakers, and so it comes down to a flip. It is an established procedure, but it rarely happens, let alone twice in one draft.

9 02 2012
Sam's Sports Brief

What you did with #2, #3 and #6 are my issues. I think the Rams should trade their pick (to get better pieces around Bradford) to the Redskins, who should draft Griffin III. I think the Browns should take Richardson, because they are going to lose Peyton Hillis, and he would fill in that void very well with a similar running style.

10 02 2012
J-Dub

It’s a nice idea. But “can’t miss” left tackles don’t come along every day, and there’s plenty of WRs out there via free agency.

9 02 2012
ChrisHumpherys (@SportsChump)

You’re right on the Bucs, Dub. I’ll take Blackmon. My buddy within the organization wants Richardson. Either way, we can’t go wrong…. unless we don’t coach ‘em up.

10 02 2012
sportbluecanyon@yahoo.com

The Bears will target a WR this offseason. But they need to do it in free agency. The BEARS SUCK at developing offensive talent. I am pissed that Darryl Drake, Bears WR coach was not replaced. Drafting a WR considering their other needs makes no sense….when they have a WR coach that can’t develop, and need an impact player NOW! They need to target a WR in the FA…and pay for him (overpay if necessary, the Bears have cap space) because their needs on the line (both offense and defense) are more pressing! The line has needed attention since we focused on the wrong position and overpaid for Cutler. We need impact and depth on our line on both sides of the ball! Next year…once we have a line in place…and give Cutler the time….if we still do not have a WR that can get it done..then we look to the draft…along with building some depth at our aging WR corps.

The ONLY thing I will accept the Bears drafting that is not a lineman…is possibly a corner or Te.

Drafting tbe “best player on the board regardless of needs” is a solid strategy, but not for the Bears. The Bears have too many needs to simply draft the overall best player on the board this year. They need to draft the best player on the board that fits their needs on the line!!!

The “best player available” is subjective..based on in part the needs of the team. Sometimes the needs trump the best available player regardless of position…

The Bears draft this year is one of those times!

10 02 2012
J-Dub

I couldn’t agree more that the Bears need line help, a receiver, and they suck at developing talent. I also agree there’s a better cut of fish for WRs in the free agent pond, but the Bears are notorious for liking to buy their tuna at Sam’s Club, and they have a long history of trying to make tuna into lobster. I just have a bad feeling that Notre Dame star available + rookie salary cap + the Forte situation = Michael Floyd at Soldier Field.

10 02 2012
sportsattitudes

The Eagles will draft an aging guy who hasn’t played football for more than four years, had a chosen profession doing something else previously…and will then hope to teach him how to play football…like last year, for example. Whatever they do, it will be wrong. As for DeSean, I think you are spot on…he’s gone.

10 02 2012
Bobby Charts

Nice work Dub.

Who would have thought that the Niners would have the 3rd to last pick in the draft this year. Crazy!

But it going to be interesting to see what they do.

13 02 2012
diehardsport

intersting article, J-Dub. Do you really think Kirpatrick falls to the Eagles. I guess the off field issues will be a concern, but he seems like a sure top 10.

I like your Lions pick. Secondary is the weakest point. I don’t see any way the Lions let Backus walk in free agency. The guy has been in Det his whole career, and right when they finally are winning I can’t see him looking for a new job.

14 02 2012
J-Dub

Kirkpatrick has two big problems. First of all, Morris Claiborne is a far-better player at the position, which means I’m not sure any of the teams in the top-half of the draft aren’t likely to address a larger need in the first round. Second, now that we’ve made defense illegal in the NFL now, there’s not that much difference between a good corner and a great one because of the rules that favor the offense.

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